IN-DEPTH: Tehran Seeks Security From Beijing Amidst Fears of a ‘General Conflagration’ in the Middle East

Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (3rd L) meets China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi (2nd R) at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing on May 17, 2019. THOMAS PETER/AFP via Getty Images

In a meeting with Iran’s number two official last week, China’s premier reiterated Beijing’s support for the Middle East nation.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with Iranian First Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber at a meeting of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states in Bishkek, capital of Kyrgyzstan, on Oct. 26.

Mr. Li said China will support Iran in securing its “state sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national dignity, and resolutely oppose any external interference in Iran’s internal affairs,” according to a statement by the Chinese foreign ministry, published on China’s various embassy websites.

The statement, with carefully chosen words that specifically reference Iran’s own concerns, comes at a time when the region is under the threat of a widening war, due to the Israel–Hamas war that was ignited by the Hamas terror group’s brutal Oct. 7 attack.

Experts told The Epoch Times Beijing’s statement indicates that Tehran has been seeking Beijing’s defense shield.

“It is likely that Iran is seeking Chinese security guarantees in case Tehran’s role in supporting Hamas terror group lands it in trouble. In that context, this public Chinese show of support is important and meaningful,” Ahmed Quraishi, a Dubai-based journalist who has covered the Middle East for over two decades, told The Epoch Times in a written message.

Iran Warns of ‘Far-Reaching Consequences’

Just one week after the Oct. 7 attack, as the Israeli offensive against Hamas continued, and as the United States was trying to deter Iran and Lebanon-backed Hezbollah—an Iranian proxy—from joining the war, Tehran warned Israel through the United Nations that it intends to intervene if Israel’s operations in Gaza continue. Axios broke news of the warning in an exclusive report on Oct. 14, citing two diplomatic sources familiar with the matter.

Subsequently, Iran’s mission to the United Nations warned via a post on X of “far-reaching consequences” if Israel’s “war crimes and genocide” were not stopped.

Ten days after the Axios report, the U.S. Department of Defense, while announcing the deployment of a squadron of F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft in the Middle East, said that U.S. forces conducting counterterrorism missions in both Iraq and Syria had been attacked by Iran-backed militias on more than a dozen occasions since Oct. 7.

“We know that the groups conducting these attacks are supported by the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and the Iranian regime,” Pentagon press secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said during the briefing. He further warned of an escalation of Iran-backed attacks against U.S. forces in the region.

An Anti-West Axis

Clare Lopez is a former career CIA officer, taught at the Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies, and is the former executive director of the Iran Policy Committee. She has served as a consultant, intelligence analyst, and researcher for a variety of defense firms, and is the founder and president of Lopez Liberty, LLC.

Ms. Lopez told The Epoch Times in an email that the close alignment of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) with the Iranian regime, which is arming, backing, and funding Hamas, is well known.

“Part of that alignment has to do with China’s economic dependence on Iranian oil. But China is also part of the anti-West axis that includes Iran as well as Putin’s Russia,” Ms. Lopez said.

The democratic state of Israel—which she called “moral, powerful and a close ally of the United States”—is hated by this new anti-American axis because of who it is, she said.

A demonstrator cheers and chants as smoke bombs go off during a protest in support of Palestine, in Vancouver, B.C., on Oct. 21, 2023. Ethan Cairns/The Canadian Press

‘Free Radicals’ and Rogue States

Experts say that on the one hand, China is using Iran as a destabilizing agent in the Middle East, while on the other hand, Iranian proxies are watching the reactions of the regime in Tehran to gauge their options.

Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, a defense economist and a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, told The Epoch Times over the phone that China has found Iran and Hamas to be “perfect tools” to destabilize the Middle East.

“China doesn’t believe in allies, it believes in free radicals, which is to say, highly revisionist states, what we would call rogue states, who essentially destabilize the entire neighborhood,” said Mr. Iyer-Mitra.

A “classic” Chinese tactic has been to find destabilizing agents in various regions, according to Mr. Iyer-Mitra, who said that like Iran in the Middle East, the Chinese intend to use North Korea to destabilize East Asia, Pakistan to destabilize South Asia and Russia to destabilize Europe.

“And what that means is, you know, it imposes a burden on the status quo power like America, to essentially go in there and maintain the peace. While China walks away with all the dividends,” he said.

Mr. Quraishi said he believes the Iranian regime is acting out of a deep sense of insecurity because its response to the conflict is being closely watched by its various other proxies.

“Their base of Iranian extremists—the Khomeinists—wants Iran to help Hamas openly in the war. The proxy groups in the region are quietly watching [to see] if Tehran will leave Hamas to its fate,” he said.

Following the Oct. 7 attack, in a move to dismantle Hamas’ funding network, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions on key Hamas-linked officials and financial networks. Those targeted included a Hamas official in Iran and members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as a Gaza-based entity “that has served as a conduit for illicit Iranian funds to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ),” according to a Treasury Department press release.

Mr. Quraishi said that the current situation is difficult for the Iranian regime, as it also faces a geo-strategic compulsion to seek Chinese support.

“Iran knows that a decimation of Hamas could weaken its own proxies. So, Supreme Leader Khamenei and IRGC commanders must be facing as difficult a choice as Israelis and Americans are facing. It’s no easy ride,” he said.

Iranian pro-government supporters participate in a rally to express their support for Palestinians, in Iran, on Oct. 18, 2023. Hossein Beris/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

‘Real Fear’ of Synchronized Actions

Experts have said that China’s statements are laden with geopolitical intent, as it seeks to use destabilizing agents like Iran for its own greater political dividends. It wants to eventually emerge as the global hegemon.

Mr. Iyer-Mitra said that China’s ongoing tactic is to use Iran to bog down America and to exploit that situation to focus on Taiwan.

“For me, the real fear is that all these actions will be synchronized and coordinated,” he said.

“Which is to say, expect something big from Pakistan. Expect something big from North Korea, and a general conflagration in both the Middle East and in Eastern Europe … with the Russian offensive in winter, which then means America is bogged down on four separate fronts, and China launches its attack on Taiwan.”

However, Mr. Quraishi believes that despite China’s loud statements in support of Iran, there’s no certainty that it will actually come to Iran’s help if Tehran becomes part of the hostilities.

“Theoretically speaking, China can distract the U.S. in Southeast Asia by opening a front, as a passive form of support to Iran in that scenario. But would Beijing do this for Tehran? It’s a big question mark,” he said.

The Middle East journalist thinks that in such a situation the Chinese will most likely fail to actively aid Iran.

“While the Iranian regime is an important and useful partner, Chinese leaders are too smart to go down with the Iranians,” Mr. Quraishi said.