Pakistan, whose strategic location makes it a key player in the Middle East as well as South Asian geopolitics, is grappling with the indecisive poll results of a national election. This means no political party has the majority in the new parliament, making it mandatory for political parties who campaigned on opposing agendas to collaborate to form the country’s next government.
Marred by allegations of rigging, the polls saw independents aligned with former prime minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party winning the most seats, followed by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM).
However, to everyone’s surprise, PML-N’s Shehbaz Sharif, the brother of Nawaz Sharif, is set to form the next government after striking an alliance with the other major political parties. Mr. Khan, who is currently in jail, had earlier on Tuesday warned his political rivals against the “misadventure” of forming the next government with “stolen votes.”
Mr. Khan’s party was considered dead in the polls: its leadership was in jail and it had to field its candidates as independents after the party was penalized by court rulings. It was on bad terms with the country’s powerful military, whose dictators have directly ruled the nation for 33 years and exercised power from behind the scenes during the remaining period.
Mr. Khan is not the only prime minister who has faced a conviction. Each of the last five prime ministers of Pakistan has faced convictions or imprisonment.
Observers see both challenges and opportunities internally at this time in the country’s democratic history. However, on the wider chessboard of geopolitics, the recent events are not a desirable development. According to experts, a coalition government implies political uncertainty. There are concerns that the new government will be more focused on navigating internal politics, and less focused on addressing economic and strategic challenges.
Pakistani journalist Ahmed Quraishi, who has been covering national security issues from Islamabad since 2002, called for “cautious optimism” that a coalition government could stabilize Pakistan—reminding The Epoch Times that the now jailed Mr. Khan had once spearheaded efforts by “jailing opponents and plotting to stay in power.” That’s how politics has worked in the country until now.
Stability is very important for Pakistan currently—for both its economic resurgence as well its geopolitical standing in a region marred by problems of internal terrorism and tense borders with all its neighbors except for China—India, Iran, and Afghanistan. However, the most urgent problem facing it is a revival of its national economy, the absence of which will only complicate everything else.
“Pakistan needs stable polity and consistent economic policy to prevent recurring economic crises,” according to Southeast Asia expert Aparna Pande. Ms. Pande is a research fellow and director of the Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia at the Washington-based Hudson Institute.
The country is currently in the middle of a temporary bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Ms. Pande said Pakistan will need to approach the IMF for a 24th loan once a new government comes to power. Pakistan is the fifth-biggest outstanding debtor with the IMF, standing only behind Argentina, Egypt, Ukraine, and Ecuador. Each of these countries has a population that is substantially less than Pakistan’s 241.5 million, and each boasts a challenging political situation.
“At a time when the country needs civilian and military leaders to come together to ensure stability, such a fractured verdict will lead to chaos in the parliament and will greatly hinder the ability of any government to implement tough economic decisions,” Ms. Pande, the author of multiple books on India and Pakistan, told The Epoch Times.
Not only will the new government face foreign policy tests in this context, it will be required, according to Ms. Salikuddin, “to commit to a path of fiscal discipline, unpopular tax reforms, privatization of state-owned businesses and withdrawal of energy subsidies"—not an easy task.
Strategic Stability
The issues of strategic instability and lack of a coherent foreign policy are also worrying geopolitical experts, who know that the current political situation most likely means weeks of increased unrest, more protests by Mr. Khan’s supporters, public resistance, and overall heightened instability.Kiyya Baloch, a freelance journalist tracking down violence in Pakistan’s border regions with Iran, pointed to Nawaz Sharif’s situation. In October of last year, the senior Sharif returned home to Pakistan after four years of self-imposed exile in London and saw all cases against him dropped. He was being popularly talked about as the next prime minister.
“However, he surprised many by distancing himself and nominating his brother for PM. I think Nawaz Sharif knows this government is weak and can’t [be sustained] for long. He is also aware of the public mood and is trying to save his political image from being compromised and a potential public backlash,” Mr. Baloch told The Epoch Times.
Pakistan’s election outcome will also significantly influence future relations with other countries, particularly with its neighbors, according to Mr. Baloch.
“This comes at a critical juncture, with Pakistan’s relationship with Iran being tense and its ties with India and Afghanistan currently at an all-time low. Furthermore, China expresses discontent with the escalating security challenges and threats to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,” he said.
Both Ms. Salikuddin and Mr. Baloch also expressed caution about how the new government will engage with the Biden administration.
How that will play out “remains to be seen, especially considering the recent lack of direct engagement between the White House and Islamabad,” said Mr. Baloch, while Ms. Salikuddin said that “the developing situation in Pakistan will compel U.S. policymakers to be cautious on engagement with the new government.”
The United States and other countries hoped that the elections would resolve the political crisis that arose after the April 2022 no-confidence motion leading to Mr. Khan’s removal as Pakistan’s prime minister. However, rather than resolve the crisis, the elections have created more uncertainty, Ms. Salikuddin said.
“Policymakers should be prepared that when a government is formed, they will be engaging with a political and military leadership that will have the precarious domestic political situation at the top of its mind rather than being focused on strategic challenges, including counterterrorism, India policy, strategic stability, and the intensifying U.S.–China strategic competition,” she said.
Ms. Pande expressed concerns about Pakistan’s internal security, which she said has worsened over the last few years, especially since the return of the Afghan Taliban to power.
“With chaos inside Pakistan, and a weak coalition government in power, the likelihood of any real resolution with Afghanistan appears unlikely,” she said.
