The dramatic—if short-lived—armed mutiny led by Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has prompted a storm of speculation that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power is slipping.
“We’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian facade,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in televised remarks on June 25.
“Revolt Raises Searing Questions,” The New York Times stated in a headline one day later. “Could Putin Lose Power?”
The dramatic episode on June 24 saw thousands of Wagner fighters, led by Prigozhin, march toward Moscow. Their aim was to air grievances about how the conflict in Ukraine was being conducted.
But while the action certainly embarrassed Russia’s leadership, it was nevertheless resolved within 24 hours, with Prigozhin quickly calling off his rebellion.
What’s more, as events unfolded, all aspects of Russian society—both civil and military—appeared to rally around Putin and condemn the mutineers.
Prigozhin’s Slow Boil
While the mutiny was over almost before it began, it had—in retrospect—been long in coming.Since Russia invaded Ukraine 15 months ago, the Wagner Group, a private military company with close ties to the Kremlin, has led much of the fighting.
After Wagner fighters captured the town of Soledar in February, Prigozhin began accusing Russia’s top brass of failing to send enough munitions to the front—a failure that he said amounted to “treason.”
Over the next several months, his criticisms of Moscow became increasingly vitriolic.
He repeatedly called for the resignation of Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and of Valery Gerasimov, chief-of-staff of the Russian military.
At one point, Prigozhin said Russia’s “special military operation” had failed to achieve its aims. He also questioned the Russian regular army’s ability to hold captured territory.
In an interview late last month, he again excoriated Moscow, claiming that alleged corruption and mismanagement could lead to “revolution” in Russia.
Moscow, for its part, largely ignored the outbursts until June 24, when Prigozhin—following one of his trademark diatribes—abruptly upped the ante.
The Rebellion That Wasn’t
But it wasn’t to be.On the evening of June 24, news emerged that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close Putin ally, had brokered a deal with the Wagner chief, who ordered his fighters to return to their base camps.
In return, criminal charges against Prigozhin were dropped, and he would be allowed to take up residence in Belarus. In addition, Wagner fighters who took part in the mutiny, meanwhile, would be pardoned in light of their front-line achievements on Russia’s behalf.
“It was all very unexpected,” Stanislav Aleksandrovich Pritchin, a senior research fellow at Russia’s Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told The Epoch Times.
“Previously, it had been inconceivable that one of Putin’s nominal allies could act so independently—and for his own interests—in the public sphere,” Pritchin said.
“But Prigozhin’s grievances appear to have been mainly with Shoigu’s defense ministry,” he added. “I don’t think his aim was regime change in Moscow.”
Russian media has since reported that Prigozhin will be kept under observation by the Belarusian authorities to ensure that he doesn’t “engage in any political activity.”
Renewed Western Support
The Wagner chief’s motivations remain unclear, and the incident has since birthed a number of conspiracy theories.On June 27, Viktor Zolotov, head of Russia’s National Guard, told Russia’s TASS news agency that the rebellion was likely “inspired by Western intelligence.”
While he didn’t provide any evidence for the claim, the theory remains popular among Russian bloggers and commentators.
But one thing’s for sure: The mutiny has provided renewed justification for stepping up Western support for Kyiv—despite a weeks-long counteroffensive that has achieved significantly less than expected.
In a June 25 interview with French daily La Provence, French President Emmanuel Macron said Prigozhin’s actions had revealed “divisions within the Russian camp [and] the fragility of its armies and auxiliary forces.”
Such revelations, he claimed, “entirely justify the support we are giving to the Ukrainians in their resistance.”
Other Western leaders have likewise seized on Prigozhin’s aborted mutiny as a telltale sign that Russia’s military machine is disintegrating.
“I don’t think we’ve seen the final act,” Blinken told ABC on June 25. “To the extent that the Russians are distracted and divided, it may make their prosecution of aggression against Ukraine more difficult.”
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also asserted that Russia’s political system was “showing fragilities, and the military power is cracking.”
No Effect on Conflict
But has it?For one, Russian officialdom—across the spectrum—was unanimous in condemning the mutineers. Even among the Wagner Group itself, few officers—if any—threw in their lot with Prigozhin’s rebellion.
What’s more, as events unfolded, Putin received several calls of support from key allies, including the leaders of Belarus, Turkey, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Qatar.
In a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on June 24, the latter expressed “full support for the steps taken by the Russian leadership,” according to the Kremlin.
Despite being a NATO member, Turkey maintains good relations with Russia, with which it shares extensive trade ties and a lengthy maritime border.
But perhaps most tellingly, even Western media has acknowledged that the ill-fated mutiny hasn’t affected the fighting in Ukraine.
On June 25, the NY Times, citing U.S. officials, reported that Prigozhin’s march on Moscow “did not cause any Russian units ... to leave their positions in southern or eastern Ukraine.”
On the same day, in an interview with Fox News, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov conceded that the goals of Kyiv’s counteroffensive had been “overestimated.”
For months, Kyiv and its Western backers had promised a robust counterattack aimed at retaking Russian-held territory. But since it began on June 4, the offensive has registered only limited gains.
Pritchin, for his part, disagrees with Western assertions that the mutiny served to expose Russian military weakness.
“Wagner remains a component of Russia’s military capacity,” he said.
“The big question now is how Putin will integrate the group into the military hierarchy and Russia’s security system.”
On June 27, Prigozhin arrived in Belarus under the terms of the deal brokered by Lukashenko.
Hours earlier, the Pentagon announced plans to provide Kyiv with a fresh $500 million military aid package.
