Illegal Channel Crossings to Spike After General Election: Refugee Charity

Illegal immigrants sit on an inflatable raft before attempting to illegally cross the English Channel to reach Britain, off the coast of Sangatte, France, on July 18, 2023. Bernard Barron/AFP/Getty Images

Small boat arrivals across the English Channel are set to spike in the wake of the general election, according to a new report released on Friday.

The Refugee Council, a charity which helps people claim asylum and settle in the UK, says that it is “highly likely” that the number of illegal crossings will rise as the summer wears on, with the total for 2024 looking set to be more than 40,000.

Basing its analysis on previous patterns, the organisation reports that August and September are usually the busiest time of year for crossings, because of better weather.

In its report “Asylum: Day one challenges for the next government," the Refugee Council states: “Nearly four in 10 of arrivals in 2022 occurred in August and September. In 2023, those months accounted for a third of crossings.

“If the distribution of arrivals throughout 2024 reflects 2022 and 2023, then around 40,300 people might be expected to have made the crossing by the end of the year.”

Last year 29,437 Channel crossings were recorded, down 36 percent on a record 45,774 in 2022, according to official figures.

Around 36 percent of crossings in 2022 took place in August and September. In 2023, those two months accounted for 34 percent of crossings.

Record-Breaking 6 Months

Home Office figures show 882 illegal immigrants arrived in a total of 16 boats between June 21 and June 27, putting the provisional total for the year to date at 13,195.

This is already a record for the first six months of a calendar year and brings the amount of illegal immigrants to enter the UK in small boats to more than 50,000 during Rishi Sunak’s premiership.

“Stopping the boats” has been a core message of the Conservative Party since Mr. Sunak got hold of the keys to Number 10 in October 2022, and controlling illegal immigration has been a Tory pledge since they took office in 2010.

Despite that, Conservatives have overseen record-high legal immigration and more than 125,000 people illegally cross the English Channel in the past six years.

The current rate is also 17 percent higher than the number recorded by this time last year (11,278), and up 8 percent on the same period in 2022 (12,206), according to an analysis of government figures.

Around 28 percent of Channel crossings recorded in 2022 took place between January and June, while 39 percent of arrivals in 2023 were logged in that time frame in the same period, the analysis also shows.

Refugee Council Chief Executive Enver Solomon told reporters: “There’s no evidence the government has presented that the Rwanda plan will act as a deterrent.

“Everyone that we work with in the asylum system that has made dangerous journeys, and other organisations based in northern France, and indeed some work that has been done by researchers in northern France, very clearly suggests that it will not act as a deterrent, that it will not stop people.”

The charity’s report recommends that whichever party forms the next government needs to set up a team of Home Office officials to review asylum claims which have been refused and the decision then appealed, with powers to grant claims, as well as recruiting more immigration judges to hear cases.

Election Pledges on Immigration

Immigration has been a prominent issue in the election campaign with the Tories saying in their manifesto they would “run a relentless, continual process of permanently removing illegal migrants to Rwanda with a regular rhythm of flights every month, starting this July.”

Labour said in its manifesto that it would scrap the Rwanda plan, introduce a Border Security Command to tackle people smuggling, and ensure the UK would “unequivocally” remain part of the European Convention on Human Rights.

The party also said it would create a new “returns and enforcement unit” with an additional 1,000 staff to “fast track removals to safe countries for people who do not have the right to stay here.”

The Epoch Times contacted the Home Office for comment and was referred to the department’s latest statement on small boats from June 19, which read, “We continue to work closely with our French partners to prevent crossings and save lives.”

PA Media contributed to this report.