How Will Ontario’s Threat to Cut Off Energy Supply Impact the US?

A hydro tower is seen with the CN Tower as a backdrop in downtown Toronto in a file photo. CP PHOTO/Kevin Frayer

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has vowed his province will cut off energy exports to the United States if President-elect Donald Trump moves ahead with 25 percent tariffs on all Canadian products. But how will Ford’s threat of an energy moratorium impact the United States?

Ford met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other provincial premiers on Dec. 11 to discuss the country’s response to Trump’s threat to impose a 25 percent tax on all products entering the U.S. from Canada and Mexico unless the countries shore up their borders to address the flow of illegal migrants and drugs.

Ford told reporters Dec. 11 Ontario has a big role to play as Canada’s most populated province and is fully prepared to “use every tool in our toolbox,” even if it means cutting off energy resources to the U.S. as part of the country’s response to the tariffs.

One essential energy source provided to several U.S. states by the province is electricity.

Ontario was the largest Canadian provider of electricity to the United States in 2023, exporting 13.9 million megawatt-hours of electricity south of the border last year, according to Statistics Canada.

The majority of Ontario’s electricity exports go to New York and Michigan, but the province also supplies electricity to Minnesota. The premier noted at the press conference that cutting off electricity would affect states as far west as Wisconsin.

If Ford makes good on his threat and the province ceases to send energy to the U.S., northern states that rely on Ontario electricity will be heavily impacted, potentially leaving more than 1.5 million homes in the dark.

Ford said it’s not a step he wants to take, but will move ahead with the energy stoppage if the tariffs are implemented.

“I don’t want this to happen, but my No. 1 job is to protect Ontario, Ontarians, and Canadians as a whole, since we’re the largest province,” Ford said.

A ‘Robust’ Response

Trudeau has not yet said whether Ottawa supports Ford’s proposed energy cut-off.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland told reporters Dec. 11 that “a number of premiers spoke out strongly in favour of a robust Canadian response to unjustified tariffs.”

“Some premiers proactively identified products that their provinces produce and export to the United States and which the U.S. relies on, and which should be considered as part of the Canadian response,” she said during a press conference in Ottawa. “This included some critical minerals and metals.”

Canada not only accounts for 85 percent of the U.S.’s electricity imports, it also plays a crucial role in the American supply chain as its largest foreign provider of steel, aluminum, and uranium. Canada is also home to 34 critical minerals and metals that the White House is keenly interested in to bolster national security and is the supplier of roughly 60 percent of the crude oil that the United States imports.

The Dec. 11 virtual meeting between Ottawa and the country’s premiers is the second discussion the leaders have had since the tariff threat, and the first since Trudeau met with Trump in Florida to discuss trade and border security.

Ford said the premiers support Ottawa’s plan to address Trump’s concerns about the border.

“I think we have to polish it up a little bit, but it’s a very, very good start,” Ford said.

It is critical that Canada be ready with a strong response because “this fight is 100 per cent coming on Jan. 20 or Jan. 21,” Ford said, referencing Trump’s previous comment that the tariffs will be one of his first orders of business after his January inauguration.

“We need to stand united as Canadians and work hand-in-hand, shoulder-to-shoulder with our colleagues across the country,” the premier added. “We can’t sit back and roll over. We just won’t as a country. We never have.”

The Canadian Press and Associated Press contributed to this report.