President-elect Donald Trump is positioning himself to make sweeping efforts to end the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine.
How successful his administration will be in that goal and what that success would mean for the futures of Ukraine and Russia, remain open questions.
Arik Burakovsky, associate director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at Tufts University, said he believes that the potential for renewed engagement with Russia could be immense if Trump pushes forward in his hopes to broker a cease-fire.
That means diplomatic opportunities abound for the second Trump administration.
“If both sides come to the table, there is a chance to discuss a cease-fire and security guarantees that could be meaningful for Ukraine’s stability,” Burakovsky told The Epoch Times.
“However, I am concerned that if Russia and Ukraine remain unwilling to negotiate in good faith and make compromises, Trump’s attention could quickly shift, especially if progress is not immediate.”
Moscow and Kyiv have thus far proven reluctant to back down from previously established demands, and the returning leader may hit roadblocks in his attempts to settle the conflict.
When Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022, Ukraine vowed to retake all of its occupied territory—including Crimea, first lost to Russia in 2014. Moscow promised to continue fighting until the whole nation of Ukraine had been demilitarized and rendered permanently neutral on the international stage.
Although both sides have been slow to publicly cede ground on those positions, there have been some suggestions that privately, they may be willing to engage in diplomacy.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it a key war aim to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, although it is unlikely that Ukraine could garner the unanimous consent of all NATO members that is required for membership anyway.
Zelenskyy’s proposition did not call for NATO membership, however, only protection for the duration of a cease-fire. It is therefore possible that NATO could agree to help enforce peace as part of a wider negotiated settlement.
The key question is whether the Trump administration will continue pursuing long negotiations or will balk at the lack of immediate concessions from either side.
Burakovsky said Trump’s efforts at international negotiations during his first term suggest that U.S. support for Ukraine might waver should talks stall, leading to a diminishing of U.S. and allied support for Ukraine’s defense.
“That could leave Ukraine in a precarious position, potentially vulnerable to intensified Russian aggression without robust backing from the West,” Burakovsky said.
CCP Outreach Signals Wider Goals
One potential way to accomplish that sustained engagement is by tying the negotiation to broader geopolitical goals and ensuring that Russia feels it is backed by a party favorable to its aims, just as Ukraine is backed by the United States.Trump has suggested as much, writing in a Dec. 8 social media post that China could assist the cease-fire process, likely in a position of ensuring Russian interests.
“I know Vladimir [Putin] well,” Trump wrote. “This is his time to act. China can help. The world is waiting!”
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership has made no secret of its ambitions to play a role in resolving the conflict.
Sam Kessler, a geopolitical analyst for the North Star Support Group risk advisory firm, said granting China a role in peace talks could help the Trump administration to smooth out other geopolitical tensions, including ongoing military bluster from Beijing on the issue of Taiwan’s independence.
He told The Epoch Times that there are also bigger issues at play here, namely Russia’s future role in the international system as well as its relationship with the Chinese regime and the United States.
“Any potential peace agreement may have to put that aspect into consideration as well,” Kessler said.
To that end, the inclusion of the Chinese regime in peace talks could help the Trump administration use the resolution of the war in Ukraine to set terms for a new era in global relations.
Trump Likely to Arm Kyiv to Negotiate
Beyond the potential inclusion of the CCP in negotiations, Trump’s selection of Keith Kellogg for the role of special envoy for Russia and Ukraine has spurred some questions as to whether Ukraine will be left without support during a negotiation with Russia.Kellogg proposed earlier in the year that the United States should push for a cease-fire that would freeze the current front lines of the battlefield while the two sides come up with a long-term solution, a concept that both Kyiv and Moscow dismissed at the time.
The proposal would bring about a tectonic shift in how the United States has thus far approached the war and would likely face some opposition from both European allies and Russia hawks within the Republican Party.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), for one, has said that Russia must be defeated in Ukraine to prevent a CCP invasion of Taiwan.
Regardless, Kessler said he believes that the appointment of Kellogg reflects Trump’s broader hope to force an end to the war, thus lowering the risk of global conflict and giving international markets an economic boost, even at the expense of Ukraine.
“It would depend on freezing the battle lines and forcing negotiations, and then possibly being open to giving eastern Ukraine to Russia,” Kessler said.
“However, any agreement made would have to require a certain level of benefit for all players to be willing to go back to the table and agree to a peace deal.”
To that end, maintaining whatever cease-fire deal emerges will require ensuring that Ukraine can deter another invasion so that Russia cannot simply exploit the time by rebuilding and redeploying its forces.
Just how to prevent such a scenario is unclear.
Experts and policymakers are suggesting more aggressive plays, however. Among them is helping Ukraine to rearm with a strategic nuclear deterrent.
After the Soviet Union fell, Ukraine was one of the world’s largest nuclear powers.
Ukrainian leadership decided to disarm, however, after receiving assurances from the United States, the UK, and Russia that those powers would protect Ukraine from nuclear threats.
Anders Corr, principal of the Corr Analytics political risk firm, said Russia’s invasion rendered that agreement moot and that the United States could now consider allowing Ukraine to rebuild its nuclear arsenal to ensure that Russia does not invade again.
“The single most important strategy to deter Russia from further aggression in Ukraine is to let the country have its nuclear weapons back,” Corr told The Epoch Times.
“In fact, we should help them or transfer the necessary technology or weapons from our own bunkers,” he said. “We need to call Putin’s bluff, and this is the way to do it with the least expenditure in men and material.”
The Biden administration has thus far said that it would not consider such a move, and Trump has repeatedly said the conflict is already too close to going nuclear.
For Kyiv’s part, however, Zelenskyy said in October that nuclear armament would be the only way to ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty should NATO back down from protecting the embattled nation.
“Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons and that will be our protection or we should have some sort of alliance,” he said. “Apart from NATO, today we do not know any effective alliances.”
While Trump is unlikely to endorse such a plan, there is a possibility that the incoming administration will make arming Ukraine with conventional weapons a priority so long as Ukraine engages in cease-fire talks with Russia.
Kellogg’s proposed strategy for winding down the war specifically argued for ensuring that the United States continues to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses, provided Kyiv accepts a negotiation to begin with.
It is unclear if Trump has endorsed Kellogg’s plan, but such a policy would help the administration to encourage an end to the war by forcing both sides to the table once and for all.
