Home Prices to Rise up to 6 Percent This Fall, Re/Max Predicts

A home sold in Vancouver in a file photo. The Canadian Press/Jonathan Hayward

Housing prices are forecast to increase by about 6 percent, according to a new report from Re/Max.

The Canadian Housing Market Outlook says that the housing market is expected to be steady into the fall and prices will increase in various markets by 1 to 6 percent by the end of 2024.

However, there are some cities where housing prices are expected to remain flat or even decline, including Toronto, Hamilton, Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo, Charlottetown, North Bay, and London, according to the report’s authors.

Re/Max brokers say they expect 33 percent of housing markets in Canada to be sellers’ markets. They said this may change as competition increases and market conditions evolve.

A Re/Max survey found that 25 percent of Canadians were actively saving to buy a property and confident that they will be able to do so soon, with younger Millennials and Gen Zs making up the majority at 35 percent.

While buying a home is listed among the top priorities for Canadians at 25 percent, day-to-day expenses (58 percent) and travel (45 percent) are listed as more important.

At the same time, 28 percent of those surveyed said they were considering moving to another country where housing is more affordable. About a quarter said they were considering putting off having kids due to housing affordability.

“Despite some consumer confidence starting to return to the market this season, the reality is Canadians are still grappling with some serious housing affordability challenges rooted in lack of supply,” Re/Max Canada president Christopher Alexander said.

He said that while interest rates are dropping, making borrowing more affordable, it won’t solve the affordability problem in the long run.

“Markets ebb and flow, and as buyers re-enter the market and absorb inventory, we’ll see more upward pressure on price,” Alexander said.

He said that a national housing strategy was needed, along with collaboration between all levels of government.

“That’s more strategic and visionary in how we can use existing lands and real estate to boost supply. In the meantime, buyers would be wise to work with an experienced real estate agent to help navigate those cyclical market ups and downs that often accompany this push and pull of supply and demand.”

A majority of Canadians told Re/Max that governments have not done enough to solve the housing affordability crisis (77 percent).

On Sept. 4, the Bank of Canada dropped its key interest rate for the third time this year, bringing it to 4.25 percent.

That may not be enough for some homeowners to keep their property, with 14 percent telling Re/Max they are looking at renewing their mortgage soon but may have to sell due to high interest rates.

Markets Forecast

While price fluctuations will vary from region to region, many cities across Canada are expected to see an increase in real estate costs, as well as a growth in housing sales.

Greater Vancouver is forecast to see a 3 percent increase in housing prices and a 10 percent increase in sales.

Edmonton is expected to see one of the largest price increases at 6 percent, with a 15 percent rise in the number of housing sales.

A moderate increase is forecasted for Winnipeg at a 4 percent rise in housing prices and a 5 percent boost in property sales, according to the report.

Hamilton is one of the regions forecast to see a decrease in housing costs with a 2 percent drop in housing prices. At the same time, the city may see a 3 percent increase in sales.

Toronto is also expected to see a decline in housing prices with a 2 percent drop and no change to the number of sales.

Re/Max predicts that Mississauga will see a 5 percent increase in the price of housing and a 15 percent rise in the number of homes sold.

Other places in Ontario are also expected to see an increase in prices, with homes in the York Region expected to cost 3 percent more by the end of the year, and in Brampton a 5 percent increase is forecast.

Buying a home in Halifax will get slightly more expensive, with a 1 percent increase forecasted. Housing sales are anticipated to rise by 3 percent, according to Re/Max.

A 1.5 percent increase in housing prices is expected for St. John’s, the report said. There was no speculation on a change in housing sales for that market.