Labor has secured a victory over the Coalition in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) for the first time in 12 years, but it’s unclear if Labor will form a majority government as they only had 46 seats so far and require 47 to hold a majority.
At present, this means that the Labor party will be reliant on independents Alex Greenwich from Sydney, Dr Joe McGirr from Wagga Wagga, and Greg Piper from Lake Macquarie, who have guaranteed to offer confidence and supply.
“In respect of the decisive result of the election, and in the interest of stable government, the members for Sydney, Lake Macquarie, and Wagga Wagga have agreed to provide confidence and supply to the incoming government,” a statement issued by the trio said.
“We look forward to a strong and consultative working relationship with the new premier and his team.”
Counting on Tuesday, March 28, showed Labor leading in all of their 37 seats while gaining grounds in 11 Liberal seats and one National seat. Meanwhile, the Liberals were ahead in 21 of their seats, didn’t gain grounds in any Labor seats, and had two seats threatened by independents.
After 12 years of Liberal state governments, votes were running in Labor’s favour in 64 of 93 seats, compared to swings to the Liberals in just three seats: Liverpool, which Labor retained; Badgerys Creek, which the Liberals retained; and Cabramatta, which Labor retained.
The Nationals perform slightly better than the Liberals, currently retaining all seats but Monaro while seeing six electorates swing in their favour.
This trend mirrors what happened at the 2022 federal election, in which the Nationals managed to retain more seats than the Liberals.
Following the Liberals’ defeat, several federal members of the Coalition called for the NSW Liberal Party to return to their policies to reflect the party’s founding values.
Labor saw huge gains in Western Sydney—one of Australia’s youngest, fastest growing, and most dynamic regions—which played a key role in bringing the party to victory, with up to five electorates turning from blue to red. These include Camden, East Hills, Parramatta, Riverstone, and Penrith.
Parramatta (Western Sydney)
Parramatta was one of the most hotly contested seats this year.It had been a safe Labor seat before 2011, when Liberal challenger Geoff Lee won on a swing of 25.8 percent. Lee continued to keep the seat for 12 years but is retiring this year.
Labor candidate Lord Mayor Donna Davis led Liberal candidate Katie Mullins by a 17.4 percent margin, signifying a 20.56 percent swing to Labor, with 43.8 percent counted.
Ryde (Northern Sydney)
The count remained neck and neck in Ryde, which had previously been a safe Liberal seat. There was a swing of 9.5 percent towards Labor, with 71.8 percent counted. Labor candidate Lyndal Howison, a high school teacher and former councillor, leads Liberal candidate Jordan Lane by an extremely tight margin of 0.6 percent. Liberal Victoria Dominello had been holding the seat from 2008 to 2023, when he decided to retire.Penrith (Western Sydney)
Labor candidate Karen McKeown was currently ahead of Liberal MP Stuart Ayres, 51.7 percent to 48.3 percent. The most recent result showed a 3.46 percent swing to Labor, with 73.49 percent counted. Penrith had long been a safe Labor seat, but Ayres claimed a landslide victory in the 2010 by-election and had comfortably retained the seat since then.East Hills (South-western Sydney)
A long-time safe Labor seat prior to the 2011 election and an ultra-marginal seat since then, East Hills saw Labor candidate Kylie Wilkinson gaining grounds with a 2.32 percent swing to the centre-left party, with 73.6 percent counted. But it was still a tight race as Liberal Wendy Lindsay was behind by only three percent.Wakehurst (Sydney’s Northern Beaches)
Currently, there are two seats where an independent candidate has upset a Liberal seat, and Wakehurst is one of them. Northern Beaches Mayor Michael Regan, who echoed Labor’s anti-privatisation campaign sentiment, was leading on a massive swing of 55.05 percent and by a 10 percent margin, with 76.29 percent counted. This is a stronghold Liberal seat that was previously held by former federal health minister Brad Hazzard. With Hazzard retiring, new Liberal candidate Toby Williams put his name in the ring.Camden (Southwest Greater-metropolitan)
Camden, a historic town where most residents were born in Australia and have European ancestry, saw a swing of 13.29 percent against the Liberals, with 54.5 percent counted. Labor’s Sally Qinnell, a music teacher and local business owner, was competing with Liberal MP Peter Sidgreaves, who was elected in 2019. Camden is a marginal seat that has traded hands between Liberals and Labor in recent decades.Riverstone (North-western Sydney)
Labor’s Warren Kirby was leading Liberal’s Mohit Kumar, 44 percent and 56 percent, with 67.49 percent of the votes counts counted. There’s a 12.54 percent swing to Labor, Based in Sydney’s growing northwest, which includes Blacktown Council, Riverstone was ancestrally a Labor seat. But in 2011, Liberal MP Kevin Connolly turned Riverstone into a safe Liberal seat in one stroke, winning on an impressive 30.2 percent swing—which was almost a record. With Connolly retiring, Kumar became the new candidate.The Greens won the majority of votes among the minor parties in first preferences, followed by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFF).
Heathcote (South Greater-Metropolitan)
Having successfully protected the seat from Labor in the 2019 election, Liberal member Lee Evans was currently in an unfavourable situation after falling behind Labor candidate Maryanne Stuart by 18.2 percent, with 72.39 percent counted. A 14.42 percent swing against the Liberals was also noted.Monaro (South Coast, Riverina, Snowy Mountains)
So far, this was the only National seat at risk. Counting showed 54.1 percent of the votes went to Labor’s Steve Whan, compared to 45.9 percent to National MP Nichole Overall, with 75.77 percent counted. There was a 15.46 percent swing towards Labor. Monaro, which includes the Snowy Mountains and sheep and beef cattle farmers, has been traded hands between Labor and National since 1976.South Coast
This electorate straddles the narrow coastal belt between the Shoalhaven district in the north and the border with Victoria in the south. With 47.73 percent counted, Labor’s Shoalhaven Councillor Lisa Butler was leading new Liberal candidate Luke Sikora by a 10 percent margin and with a 15.64 percent swing in Labor’s favour.The Greens had almost half of the Liberal vote in first preferences.
Wollondilly (Southwest of Greater Sydney area)
Undecided Seats
Seats that are too close to call include Goulburn, Holsworthy, Kiama, Miranda, Pittwater, and Terrigal on the Central Coast. Notably, in Terrigal, an ultra-marginal seat, Liberals fell behind two days ago but caught up and were currently ahead of Labor by 0.2 percent, with 71.2 percent counted. This is despite a 12.98 percent swing against Liberals.Terrigal is a fairly new seat created in the redistribution prior to the 2007 election. Since 2015, it was the only Central Coast electorate held by the centre-right party.
