Greece to Spend 20 Billion Euros to Reverse Population Decline

A woman holds a baby's foot in an undated file photo. Loic Venance/AFP via Getty Images

Greece plans to invest 20 billion euros (about $22.1 billion) by 2035 in incentives aimed at reversing its population decline.

With a fertility rate of 1.3—one of the lowest in Europe and far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population—the country faces a significant demographic crisis.

A national demographic action plan, outlining 10 years of incentives to halt the decline, was formally presented on Sept. 30 to the government in a cabinet meeting.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has previously called the country’s situation “a national threat” and a “ticking time bomb” for pensions.

The 20 billion euros will be spent on incentives for couples to have children, such as cash benefits, day care vouchers, and tax breaks, according to Greece’s family ministry.

‘Statistics and Forecasting Models Are Ominous’

Family and Social Cohesion Minister Sofia Zacharaki presented the plan on Oct. 2.

“The statistics and forecasting models are ominous, but we must all make an extra effort to overcome,” she said.

“The ultimate goal is to improve the standard of living.”

Greece, often referred to as the cradle of Western civilization, has faced severe financial and societal challenges.

The country has endured a devastating debt crisis that led to a decade of austerity, economic hardship, and social unrest. Thousands of young Greeks left the country in search of better opportunities abroad, and those who stayed are often unable to afford housing because of skyrocketing property prices.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis attends a NATO summit in Madrid on June 30, 2022. Susana Vera/Reuters

In July, Greece had the second-highest unemployment rate in the EU at 9.9 percent (Spain had a 11.9 percent rate), according to Eurostat data. And according to data published by Statista Research Department in September, Greece had the EU’s second-highest youth unemployment rate (among those ages 15 to 24) in April 2023 at 27.7 percent.

The average monthly salary of 1,175 euros is 20 percent lower than it was 15 years ago, according to labor ministry figures.

One Birth Per Two Deaths

In October 2023, Mitsotakis told a demographics conference that Greece effectively recorded just one birth per every two deaths in 2022.

“Our people are one of the oldest in Europe. Greek women ages 20 to 40 declined by 150,000 over the past five years,” he said.

Greece’s national statistics agency, ELSTAT, reported that in 2023, Greece recorded 71,455 live births—a 6.1 percent decrease from 2022—and 128,101 deaths.

‘Most Serious Crisis Humanity is Facing’

Demography experts have expressed skepticism about the extent to which these plans can reverse the trend.

Data scientist and demographer Stephen J. Shaw has warned that population decline is “the most serious crisis humanity is facing.”

In an interview with NTD’s “British Thought Leaders” in May, he said that population decline—which is also being seen in other developed nations such as Italy and Japan—is particularly serious because no known civilization has recovered from it.

“In fact, there’s evidence that this is exactly how civilizations end,” Shaw said, detailing that the Roman Empire in its latter stages had put in place policies to try to increase birth rates, including taxing the childless.

Data scientist and demographer Stephen J. Shaw poses for a photo after an interview with NTD's "British Thought Leaders" program. NTD

“There are Roman experts who put demography as one of the reasons that the Roman Empire—well, it didn’t fall overnight—it basically faded away. And that’s exactly what’s happening to us, now. We’re fading away. This is what it feels like to fade away.”

Shaw noted that a reason for declining birth rates is what he termed “baby shocks,” events in the global economy—such as oil or currency crises—that cause couples to delay having children.

There is no recovery from these shocks, according to Shaw, and these are what contribute to lifelong childlessness.

He said that prior to 1973, childlessness was “negligible” at less than 5 percent in the UK. Within three to four years, that proportion had increased to more than 20 percent, and the nation is now heading toward 30 percent lifelong childlessness.

Reuters contributed to this report.