Greece to Spend €20 Billion to Reverse Population Decline

A woman holds the foot of a baby in an undated file photo. Loic Venance/AFP via Getty Images

Greece plans to invest €20 billion ($22 billion) by 2035 in incentives aimed at reversing its declining population.

With a fertility rate of 1.3, one of the lowest in Europe and far below the 2.5 needed for population growth, the country faces a significant demographic crisis.

The National Demographic Action Plan, outlining incentives through to 2035 to halt the decline, was formally presented on Monday to the government in a cabinet meeting.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has previously called the country’s situation “a national threat” and a “ticking time bomb” for pensions.

The 20 billion euros ($22 billion) spend includes incentives for couples to have children such as cash benefits, daycare vouchers and tax breaks, Greece’s family ministry said.

‘Statistics and Forecasting Models Are Ominous’

Family and Social Cohesion Minister Sofia Zacharaki made a presention on the plan on Wednesday, saying that “the statistics and forecasting models are ominous but we must all make an extra effort to overcome.”

“The ultimate goal is to improve the standard of living,” she added.

Greece, often referred to as the cradle of Western civilization, has faced severe financial and societal challenges.

The country has endured a devastating debt crisis marked by a decade of austerity, economic hardship, and social unrest. Thousands of young Greeks left the country in search of better opportunities abroad, and those who stayed are often unable to afford housing due to skyrocketing property prices.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis attends a NATO summit in Madrid on June 30, 2022. Susana Vera/Reuters

Greece also has the second highest unemployment rate in the EU at 9.9 percent, according to July 2024 data, under Spain at 11.9 percent.

Greece also has the second-highest youth unemployment rate (15-24 years) as of this month, at 27.7 percent.

The average monthly salary of 1,175 euros is 20 percent lower than 15 years ago, according to labor ministry figures.

One Birth Per Two Deaths

Last year, Mitsotakis told a demographics conference that Greece effectively recorded just one birth per two deaths in 2022.

“Our people are one of the oldest in Europe. Greek women aged 20 to 40 declined by 150,000 over the past five years,” he said.

Greece’s National statistics agency ELSTAT said that in 2023, Greece recorded 71,455 live births, a 6.1 percent decrease from 2022, while deaths amounted to 128,101,

‘Most Serious Crisis Humanity is Facing’

Demography experts have expressed skepticism about how much these plans can reverse the trend.

Data scientist and demographer Stephen J. Shaw has warned Population decline is “the most serious crisis humanity is facing.”

In an interview with NTD’s “British Thought Leaders” last year he said that population decline—which is also being seen in other developed nations such as Italy and Japan—is the most serious because no known civilization has recovered from it.

“In fact, there’s evidence that this is exactly how civilizations end,” Shaw said, detailing that the Roman Empire in its latter stages had put in place policies to try and increase birthrates including taxes on the childless.

Data scientist and demographer Stephen J. Shaw poses for a photo after an interview with NTD's "British Thought Leaders" program. NTD

“There are Roman experts who put demography as one of the reasons that the Roman Empire—well, it didn’t fall overnight—it basically faded away. And that’s exactly what’s happening to us, now. We’re fading away. This is what it feels like to fade away,” he said.

He noted that a reason for declining birthrates was what he termed “baby shocks”: events in the global economy—such as oil or currency crises—that cause couples to delay having children.

There is no recovery from these shocks, Shaw said, and these are what contribute to lifelong childlessness.

He said that prior to 1973, childlessness was “negligible” at less than 5 percent in the UK. Within three to four years, that proportion had increased to over 20 percent and the nation is now heading towards 30 percent lifelong childlessness.

Reuters contributed to this report.