Germany Heads to the Polls: AfD Threatens Social Democrats Stronghold in Brandenburg

Bjoern Hoecke (L), lead candidate of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Thuringia, and Mario Voigt, lead candidate of the German Christian Democrats (CDU) wait to speak in a television interview at the Thuringia State Parliament following Thuringia state elections in Erfurt, Germany, on Sept. 1, 2024. Jens Schlueter/Getty Images

Germany’s state of Brandenburg could be on the brink of a major political shift as voters head to the polls this weekend in a neck-and-neck race between the AfD and Social Democrats.

The latest poll by ZDF Politbarometer Extra put the right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) slightly ahead at 28 percent, closely followed at 27 percent by the center-right governing Social Democrats (SPD), who have long considered the region a heartland.

AfD-Brandenburg is hoping to replicate its recent successes in Saxony and Thuringia, where it emerged as the leading political force. On Sept. 1, the AfD secured nearly 33 percent of the vote in Thuringia and almost 31 percent in Saxony, setting a new precedent in eastern Germany.

Olaf Scholz

An AfD win in the eastern state of Brandenburg, surrounding the national capital, Berlin, could signal an unprecedented upset for the Social Democrats, who have governed there since the fall of the Berlin Wall. A win would also potentially threaten Chancellor Olaf Scholz in his home state.

The state hosts Tesla’s first factory in Europe and includes affluent areas within the Berlin commuter belt, but many of its rural villages and farmlands have been in decline for decades.

Hans-Christoph Berndt, the leading candidate of AfD-Brandenburg, is challenging the Social Democrats’ dominance by tapping into local discontent.

“Critical questions arise: Why must all of Brandenburg be covered with wind turbines? Why do we give up Russian oil and gas, [and] instead import expensive liquefied gas from the other side of the world? Why are rents and construction costs becoming unaffordable? Why are my children no longer learning to read and write properly in school? Why is violent crime on the rise? And why do we feel increasingly foreign in our own city?” says Berndt’s manifesto.

“Dramatically declining quality of education can also be seen as an attempt to strip Brandenburgers of their own critical thinking,” he says.

“The completely exaggerated and medically unfounded COVID-19 measures have shown everyone that the state government does not pursue the interests of Brandenburg but obediently follows directives from Berlin and Brussels.”

Huge Ramifications

Richard Schenk, a research fellow at the think tank MCC Brussels, told The Epoch Times that the AfD has deep roots in Brandenburg, having first entered the state parliament in 2014, though the state is historically a Social Democrat stronghold.

“It’s basically just SPD and AfD. If the SPD loses with a popular candidate, this would have huge ramifications,” he said. “This would mean that the federal government’s negative reputation is so profound now that even a popular candidate in a heartland cannot win an election.”

Schenk explained that while people are generally content with the state government, the federal government is seen as highly unpopular.

“Only 14 percent of people in all of Germany say that the government is doing its job well.”

He also pointed out that energy issues and immigration concerns resonate with Brandenburg’s rural population.

“Brandenburg used to have the biggest oil refinery for Russian oil in Germany, and the federal government stopped importing Russian oil,” Schenk said, adding that the AfD has been the only party to really capitalize on discontent over the proliferation of wind farms in the state.

If the SPD falters in Brandenburg, it could pave the way for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to form a coalition, potentially with the support of the left-wing nationalist, populist, Eurosceptic, and socially conservative party the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).

“During the last three elections, they [Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance] were the biggest election kingmakers in two states. And this is very likely to be again the case in Brandenburg,” said Schenk.

Unable to Form a Coalition

Widespread frustration with Scholz’s liberal-left coalition, which includes the Greens and Free Democratic Party (FDP), has grown as many Germans believe that the AfD addresses issues more effectively than the established parties.

These parties are often seen as prioritizing ideological positions over rational solutions, reflecting a deepening divide between eastern and western Germany.

Domestic security services have treated the main AfD as a potentially extremist party since 2021, granting security services the right to keep it under surveillance. However, the party denies that it is extremist.

In response to the AfD becoming the strongest party in a federal state for the first time, Scholz urged other parties to block the AfD from governing. The party has since been unable to form a coalition.

The SPD told The Epoch Times that it could not comment. The Epoch Times also contacted the AfD for a response.

Reuters contributed to this report.