Germany’s Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD), a right wing party, secured a historic win in a state election—its first in 60 years—and is within striking distance of another victory in a neighboring state.
The Sept. 1 state-level elections in Germany’s two eastern states were to elect new state Legislatures, the Landtage, which handle local matters—similar to the role of U.S. state Legislatures.
Projections place the AfD in the lead in the east German state of Thuringia with around 33 percent of the vote, while a newly-formed leftist party also gained substantial support. Parties representing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centrist coalition fell behind both those factions in the state.
The Christian Democratic Union, a center-right national opposition party, also fell well behind, winning around 24 percent of the vote.
Meanwhile, the newly-formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a populist-leaning leftist party, is projected to take around 16 percent of the vote in Thuringia.
The biggest defeat in the elections seems to be related to Scholz, who has faced low approval ratings and widespread dissatisfaction with his government—particularly in Germany’s east.
Other States
The AfD’s strong showing wasn’t reserved to Thuringia: projections from the neighboring eastern state of Saxony place the party at a close second.In that race, the Christian Democratic Union appeared to be in the lead with between 31.5 and 31.8 percent of the vote.
The AfD, however, is right behind them with between 30.8 and 31.4 percent of the vote—leaving open the possibility that they may bring home a majority in both races.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, meanwhile, received 12 percent of the vote in Saxony, while Scholz’s party again faced single-digit showings.
The results mean a disappointing loss of seats for the German ruling party amid the AfD’s uptick in support in the formerly communist eastern half of the country.
As the government in Berlin faces dismal approval ratings and dwindling voter confidence, eastern Germans have been critical of mass immigration, inflation, and German support for Ukraine—a series of issues familiar to leaders across the United States and Europe.
Europe At Crossroads
In a country whose politics have been ruled by centrists since the end of WWII, the AfD victory has shocked some Germans, particularly as the party has also made gains in races across the continent.In June, the AfD made a strong second-place showing in European Parliament elections.
In the same race, France’s right-wing party the National Rally won about 32 percent of the vote, taking the largest vote share in the race.
A last minute grouping of centrists and leftists managed to stave off a right-wing victory in the French parliamentary elections that followed, but the outcome showed the growing strength of the right wing in Western Europe.
Right wing parties had similar victories in certain races across Europe.
The AfD’s projected victory in Thuringia, while an indication of growing support for the German right, likely won’t mean AfD control of the two states’ Legislatures: other major parties in the race have already ruled out working with the right.
Still, it’s unclear what any potential coalitions will look like. For the centrists and leftists to keep the AfD from seizing a majority in the two states, they will need to form an uncomfortable coalition.
German voters will also decide on their leaders in a federal election next year.
