Bangladesh, a South Asian nation born just five decades ago, has witnessed massive public unrest and violence in the past few weeks. The political upheaval, which left over 440 dead and saw Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fleeing the country, has significantly impacted the geopolitical situation and contributed to new security threats in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, according to South Asia experts.
“The situation in Bangladesh will complicate the security situation in the Bay of Bengal region. The instability could have spillover effects to the broader Indian Ocean, affecting not just Indian interests but Western interests at large as well,” said Akhil Ramesh, Director of the India Program at the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum.And now, amidst similar unrest, Sheikh Hasina—Bangladesh’s prime minister since 2009—has fled the country after protestors marched on her official residence. A day after Hasina fled on Aug. 5, Bangladesh’s parliament was dissolved, and a 14-member interim government under economist and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was sworn in.
Ramesh told The Epoch Times the last five years have been a turbulent time for South Asia. Referring to China, he said: “While the region is no stranger to instability, the evolving geopolitical situation in the wider region, in South China sea to the Taiwan Strait, gives authoritarian actors in the Indo-Pacific increased strategic advantages in the region.”
Tarique Choyon, a Bangladeshi journalist and columnist, was present at the interim government’s swearing in and described Yunus’ first meeting with the press after landing at the Dhaka airport.
Hasina Versus Zia
Behind the political upheaval in Bangladesh is the political conflict between Hasina and her primary opponent, Khaleda Zia, leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.Bangladesh politics has three main players—Hasina’s political party, the Awami League; Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP); and Zia’s political ally, Jamaat-e-Islami.
“I hope the new government will be able to control this tense situation, and this is extremely necessary. Otherwise, Bangladesh’s situation may soon become like that of Pakistan or Afghanistan. There could even be a civil war similar to those in Libya and Syria,” he said.
Hossain said he believes the security situation in the region will slide further if BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami come to power in the upcoming elections.
“Bangla Bhai camps will be established in neighborhoods, and unrest will spread everywhere. Terrorist activities by these extremists will increase in our neighboring countries, India and Myanmar,” Hossain predicted.
Bangla Bhai camps were terrorist camps established by Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB), an Al Qaeda affiliated, Bangladeshi terrorist organization. The organization was involved in multiple suicide bombings inside Bangladesh in 2005. Siddique ul-Islam, popularly known as “Bangla Bhai,” was the group’s second in command and became notorious for terrorist activities and torture.
‘Three Scenarios’
Satoru Nagao, a non-residential fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, told The Epoch Times that three geo-political scenarios could arise out of the current situation in Bangladesh.“Firstly, if Bangladesh creates a new, stable government of all political parties—without any retaliation against the just ousted government, Bangladesh’s future could be bright,” he said.
The Tokyo based Nagao predicted that, under that scenario, Bangladesh could remain a preferred place for foreign investors relocating out of China. Due to the lost cost of labor, Bangladesh—along with Vietnam and India—is currently a referred destination for investors looking for an alternative to China.
In stark contrast to the first scenario, Nagao said, is a second in which “law and order will not be recovered.”
“Bangladesh’s history has proved that retaliation happens after a regime changes,” he said. “Because of fear of such retaliation, police and government officials who were working under [the] Hasina government are hiding somewhere.”
“People who were on the side of Hasina and Hindu minorities matter. Quad countries will support India’s effort to save these people in this case,” said Nagao.
Since Hasina’s ouster, minorities in Bangladesh have been targeted in more than 200 attacks across 52 districts, according to an open-letter sent to Yunus by the minority civil rights organizations in the country.
Choyon said it’s a “good thing” that the interim cabinet decided Sunday that the attacks on religious minorities are a matter of grave concern. In its first official statement, the cabinet said that “the chief adviser shall immediately sit with the representative bodies and other concerned groups to find ways to resolve such heinous attacks.”
A third scenario could arise if a pro-China or a pro-Pakistan government comes to power inside Bangladesh, Nagao said. Even if it turns out to be a stable government, it will geopolitically remain a concern for the Quad nations—India, Japan, the United States, and Australia.
“In the long run, such a government will face difficulty because of the escalating Quad–China rivalry,” Nagao said. In that scenario, investment from Quad countries would likely go to India or Vietnam instead of Bangladesh.
And, although that scenario would include a heavy Chinese investment in Bangladesh, “China’s investment has high interest rates and creates huge debt for Bangladesh, which will create problems later.”
Debsarkar expressed hope that in this challenging context, Yunus’ background as a Nobel laureate will ensure good communication and relations between Bangladesh and the Western nations. Because he is widely respected within the country as well, he will be able to balance the situation and help the country peacefully transition to the next, Debsarkar said.
Escalating Problems for India
There are varied and conflicting narratives about whether a foreign power instigated the protests in Bangladesh. However, there’s a consensus that regardless of what happened or at whose behest, the situation is a challenge for India, with whom Bangladesh shares a long and porous border. Any kind of fallout in Bangladesh will have security repercussions for India, according to experts.Hossain described India as a “long-standing” friend of Bangladesh, and China as an investor contributing to the country’s development. He said that Hasina did a good job of balancing relations between New Delhi and Beijing—both of whom compete for influence in the region.
Hossain also expressed concerns about a disagreement between the United States and the ousted prime minister over the establishment of a military base on Bangladesh’s Saint Martin’s Island.
“Honorable Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina did not agree to this. This led to a deterioration in diplomatic relations between the two countries [the United States and Bangladesh]. India and China also warned the Bangladesh government about this issue,” he said, adding that he’s not sure whether this contributed to the unrest in Bangladesh, but he’s certain that Hasina was displeased with the United States over this issue.
‘Recalibrate and Reset’
Choyon, the Bangladeshi journalist, confirmed the presence of Indian and Chinese ambassadors as well as representatives from the U.S. mission in Dhaka at the interim government’s swearing in, which was attended by nearly 1,500 people.“We hope for an early return to normalcy, ensuring the safety and protection of Hindus and all other minority communities,” Modi added in the message, which was viewed by 11.7 million people. “India remains committed to working with Bangladesh to fulfill the shared aspirations of both our peoples for peace, security and development.”
India’s home minister, Amit Shah, announced the same day the creation of a high level committee to monitor the situation on the border and ensure the safety of Indians and Hindu minorities in Bangladesh.
Debsarkar, who’s based in the UK, told The Epoch Times that India and Bangladesh have historical relations, and how they mutually tackle the situation in the region will have a wider impact.
He described the neighbors as having an “umbilical cord relationship,” which nonetheless “has seen its highs and lows.”
“There are many manifestations of this relationship,” he said, “not only in trade and commerce but there’s also a cultural connect, tourism connect, medical [tourism] connect.”