Geopolitical Repercussions of Bangladesh’s Political Upheaval

A man carries Bangladesh's national flag as Muslims gather to offer Friday noon prayers at the Bangladesh National Mosque in Dhaka, on Aug. 9, 2024. (Luis Tato/AFP via Getty Images)

News Analysis

Bangladesh, a South Asian nation born just five decades ago, has witnessed massive public unrest and violence in the past few weeks. The political upheaval, which left over 440 dead and saw Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fleeing the country, has significantly impacted the geopolitical situation and contributed to new security threats in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, according to South Asia experts.

“The situation in Bangladesh will complicate the security situation in the Bay of Bengal region. The instability could have spillover effects to the broader Indian Ocean, affecting not just Indian interests but Western interests at large as well,” said Akhil Ramesh, Director of the India Program at the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum.

South Asia has seen multiple democratically elected governments toppled by unrest over the last five years. Pakistan faced political turmoil after an elected government lost a no-confidence vote in its parliament in April 2022. A few months later, amidst widespread unrest, protestors in Sri Lanka marched into the presidential residence as then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the nation.

And now, amidst similar unrest, Sheikh Hasina—Bangladesh’s prime minister since 2009—has fled the country after protestors marched on her official residence. A day after Hasina fled on Aug. 5, Bangladesh’s parliament was dissolved, and a 14-member interim government under economist and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was sworn in.

Ramesh told The Epoch Times the last five years have been a turbulent time for South Asia. Referring to China, he said: “While the region is no stranger to instability, the evolving geopolitical situation in the wider region, in South China sea to the Taiwan Strait, gives authoritarian actors in the Indo-Pacific increased strategic advantages in the region.”

Tarique Choyon, a Bangladeshi journalist and columnist, was present at the interim government’s swearing in and described Yunus’ first meeting with the press after landing at the Dhaka airport.

“I respect you, I admire you,” Yunus told student leaders, and called for an end to violence. “If you have trust in me, if you believe you can rely on me, then don’t attack anyone in the country,” he said. “And if you listen to me, then there is no more need for it.”

Choyon said that Bangladeshis had become frustrated with Hasina’s rule because, according to him, she ruled with a heavy fist—possible only with the help of law enforcement. After she fled, she lost trust even among her own party members, he said, when they were targeted by rioters.

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong with Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheik Hasina in May 2024. (Source: DFAT)

Hasina Versus Zia

Behind the political upheaval in Bangladesh is the political conflict between Hasina and her primary opponent, Khaleda Zia, leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

Bangladesh politics has three main players—Hasina’s political party, the Awami League; Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP); and Zia’s political ally, Jamaat-e-Islami.

Almost all of Hasina’s family, including her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman—then president of Bangladesh and considered its founding father—were killed in a military coup in 1975. Hasina, her sister, her husband and children were spared because they were out of the country at the time. 

Zia’s husband, Ziaur Rahman—founder of the BNP and president of Bangladesh at the time—was also killed by a group of army officers in 1981.

Jamaat-e-Islami is a pan-South Asian organization. Its largest branch is in Pakistan, and it has a substantial presence in India, Bangladesh, and affiliates around the world. The Islamist political party is accused of instigating and exploiting the anti-government protests. Amid widespread violence, Hasina’s government banned the organization, its student wing Islami Chhatra Shibir, and other associate bodies on Aug. 1 under an anti-terrorism law.

H. A. Billal Hossain is a journalist and former student leader. Former president of the Bangladesh Students League International Unit, he is the founder and editor of Bengali News 71. A day after the interim government was sworn in, Hossain spoke to The Epoch Times about the events unfolding in Bangladesh, which, he said, will definitely impact the overall security of South Asia. 

“I hope the new government will be able to control this tense situation, and this is extremely necessary. Otherwise, Bangladesh’s situation may soon become like that of Pakistan or Afghanistan. There could even be a civil war similar to those in Libya and Syria,” he said.

Hossain said he believes the security situation in the region will slide further if BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami come to power in the upcoming elections.

“Bangla Bhai camps will be established in neighborhoods, and unrest will spread everywhere. Terrorist activities by these extremists will increase in our neighboring countries, India and Myanmar,” Hossain predicted.

Bangla Bhai camps were terrorist camps established by Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB), an Al Qaeda affiliated, Bangladeshi terrorist organization. The organization was involved in multiple suicide bombings inside Bangladesh in 2005. Siddique ul-Islam, popularly known as “Bangla Bhai,” was the group’s second in command and became notorious for terrorist activities and torture.

Passersby view a burnt vehicle along a street amid anti-government protests in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on Aug. 5, 2024. (Munir Uz Zaman/AFP via Getty Images)

‘Three Scenarios’

Satoru Nagao, a non-residential fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, told The Epoch Times that three geo-political scenarios could arise out of the current situation in Bangladesh.

“Firstly, if Bangladesh creates a new, stable government of all political parties—without any retaliation against the just ousted government, Bangladesh’s future could be bright,” he said.

The Tokyo based Nagao predicted that, under that scenario, Bangladesh could remain a preferred place for foreign investors relocating out of China. Due to the lost cost of labor, Bangladesh—along with Vietnam and India—is currently a referred destination for investors looking for an alternative to China.

In stark contrast to the first scenario, Nagao said, is a second in which “law and order will not be recovered.”

“Bangladesh’s history has proved that retaliation happens after a regime changes,” he said. “Because of fear of such retaliation, police and government officials who were working under [the] Hasina government are hiding somewhere.”

Nagao added that overall, there is very little law and order in Bangladesh right now.

Given that Hasina was a pro-India leader, the Hudson expert said that India needs to come to the rescue of pro-India Bangladeshis.

“People who were on the side of Hasina and Hindu minorities matter. Quad countries will support India’s effort to save these people in this case,” said Nagao.

Since Hasina’s ouster, minorities in Bangladesh have been targeted in more than 200 attacks across 52 districts, according to an open-letter sent to Yunus by the minority civil rights organizations in the country.

Choyon said it’s a “good thing” that the interim cabinet decided Sunday that the attacks on religious minorities are a matter of grave concern. In its first official statement, the cabinet said that “the chief adviser shall immediately sit with the representative bodies and other concerned groups to find ways to resolve such heinous attacks.”

A third scenario could arise if a pro-China or a pro-Pakistan government comes to power inside Bangladesh, Nagao said. Even if it turns out to be a stable government, it will geopolitically remain a concern for the Quad nations—India, Japan, the United States, and Australia.

“In the long run, such a government will face difficulty because of the escalating Quad–China rivalry,” Nagao said. In that scenario, investment from Quad countries would likely go to India or Vietnam instead of Bangladesh.

And, although that scenario would include a heavy Chinese investment in Bangladesh, “China’s investment has high interest rates and creates huge debt for Bangladesh, which will create problems later.”

Priyajit Debsarkar, author of “The Last Raja of West Pakistan“ and ”Pakistan’s Atlantique Attack and Arbitration,“ told The Epoch Times that how the interim government addresses ”the immediate neighborhood” will determine the long term geopolitical impact of the current political situation in Bangladesh.

Debsarkar expressed hope that in this challenging context, Yunus’ background as a Nobel laureate will ensure good communication and relations between Bangladesh and the Western nations. Because he is widely respected within the country as well, he will be able to balance the situation and help the country peacefully transition to the next, Debsarkar said.

Students clash with riot police during a protest against a quota system for government jobs, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on July 18, 2024. (Rajib Dhar/AP Photo)

Escalating Problems for India

There are varied and conflicting narratives about whether a foreign power instigated the protests in Bangladesh. However, there’s a consensus that regardless of what happened or at whose behest, the situation is a challenge for India, with whom Bangladesh shares a long and porous border. Any kind of fallout in Bangladesh will have security repercussions for India, according to experts.

Hossain described India as a “long-standing” friend of Bangladesh, and China as an investor contributing to the country’s development. He said that Hasina did a good job of balancing relations between New Delhi and Beijing—both of whom compete for influence in the region.

Hossain also expressed concerns about a disagreement between the United States and the ousted prime minister over the establishment of a military base on Bangladesh’s Saint Martin’s Island.

“Honorable Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina did not agree to this. This led to a deterioration in diplomatic relations between the two countries [the United States and Bangladesh]. India and China also warned the Bangladesh government about this issue,” he said, adding that he’s not sure whether this contributed to the unrest in Bangladesh, but he’s certain that Hasina was displeased with the United States over this issue.

Hasina’s son and advisor Sajeeb Wazed has rejected reports that his mother signed a resignation statement implicating the United States in her expulsion over Saint Martin’s Island. Meanwhile, the White House said on Aug. 12 that allegations of U.S. interference are “simply false.”

Instead, Hossain pointed to what he sees as possible Pakistani involvement, as well as that of opposition parties within Bangladesh. “For example, without orders from police headquarters or the government, a Jamaat-e-Islami-supported police officer shot a student [Abu Sayed] from Rokeya University, sparking unrest. Jamaat-e-Islami student activists infiltrated the general student population and killed students,” he said.

According to him, the situation further escalated when some police officers used force against students. “The main issue was that by attacking the students, the movement was further inflamed, even though the government had not authorized any shooting,” he said.

‘Recalibrate and Reset’

Choyon, the Bangladeshi journalist, confirmed the presence of Indian and Chinese ambassadors as well as representatives from the U.S. mission in Dhaka at the interim government’s swearing in, which was attended by nearly 1,500 people.

Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted a message on X Aug. 8, welcoming Yunus as leader of the interim government.

“We hope for an early return to normalcy, ensuring the safety and protection of Hindus and all other minority communities,” Modi added in the message, which was viewed by 11.7 million people. “India remains committed to working with Bangladesh to fulfill the shared aspirations of both our peoples for peace, security and development.”

India’s Border Security Force (BSF) sent back nearly 1,000 panicked Bangladeshi citizens, mostly Hindus, on Friday after they tried to cross the Indian border seeking refuge.

India’s home minister, Amit Shah, announced the same day the creation of a high level committee to monitor the situation on the border and ensure the safety of Indians and Hindu minorities in Bangladesh.

Debsarkar, who’s based in the UK, told The Epoch Times that India and Bangladesh have historical relations, and how they mutually tackle the situation in the region will have a wider impact.

He described the neighbors as having an “umbilical cord relationship,” which nonetheless “has seen its highs and lows.”

“There are many manifestations of this relationship,” he said, “not only in trade and commerce but there’s also a cultural connect, tourism connect, medical [tourism] connect.”

Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia, with India–Bangladesh bilateral trade reaching $13 billion in the past year.

In light of the current situation, India and Bangladesh will need to “recalibrate and reset” their expectations of the relationship, Debsarkar said.