A former Tory MP and senior journalist has stated that he believes Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government is “likely” to lose at the next general election.
Paul Goodman, former MP for Wycombe and editor of Conservative Home, a prominent online party publication, has raised eyebrows among Tory stalwarts, ahead of the anticipated 2024 general election, by openly discussing the possibility of the Conservative Party losing.
In a discussion yesterday with centre-right think tank Onward, Mr. Goodman candidly stated, “I want to assume, for the purposes of this discussion, that the Conservatives don’t win the next election.”
While acknowledging that such discussions are typically avoided in the presence of politicians, he ventured to express that the Conservatives are likely to lose the upcoming election.
Speaking just before MPs gathered to vote on the second reading of the Rwanda Bill, Mr. Goodman said, “I think I can venture the thought that as we sit here now, the Conservatives are more likely to lose than win. So let’s have a conversation on that basis.”
Mr. Goodman’s comments add to the growing concerns and challenges faced by the Tories as they approach the election, with recent polls indicating a significant gap between the party and Labour after over 13 years in government.
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A recent poll indicated a significant shift in Tory voters’ attitudes, with just 55 percent of 2019 Conservative supporters now leaning toward supporting Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s party, and 15 percent planning to back Reform UK.
Red Wall Slide Not Benefiting Labour
Despite Labour’s 20-point national poll lead, only 13 percent of respondents intend to support Sir Keir Starmer’s party. This trend poses a potential challenge for Labour in retaining Red Wall constituencies, which are historically loyal but unexpectedly siding with the Tories in 2019.The data, produced by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, suggested continued resistance to Labour in these crucial areas, with disenfranchised voters being wooed by the prospect of Reform UK, which is positioned to the right of the Tories on key policies.
Responding to a question from The Epoch Times, Mr. Goodman spoke to the possibility of the Tories regaining Red Wall voters’ trust, despite such a significant slide away from the strength of their 2019 voter base.
Mr. Goodman said, “I think… the kind of class element in voting patterns has got weaker, the age element has got stronger. So, I don’t think lots of red wall voters are going to rush back to the Tories anytime soon. But their historical link with Labour has been broken. So it’s possible to make an appeal better over time.”
However, in a plea for the Conservative party to “modernise,” Mr. Goodman added that the specific requirements of this voter demographic would need to be taken into consideration by Mr. Sunak’s party.
“I’m just a bit cautious about the idea that they want some sort of simplified form of conservatism, because once you get out of the greater South East, I think you’re a bit more public services dependent. So these sort of voters, I think they’re… a bit on the right of culture and a bit to the left on economics. So any Tory appeal is going to have to have that group of people [taken] into account.”
Tories ‘Guaranteed’ To Lose Under Sunak
David Campbell Bannerman, the former MEP and Chairman of the Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO), told The Epoch Times that the Tories were “guaranteed” to lose under Mr. Sunak’s leadership.The CDO, a Tory campaign group, was founded by Boris Johnson’s key ally Lord Cruddas, in the wake of Mr. Johnson’s departure from frontline politics, to reform the constitution of the Conservative Party and give greater power back to members over the selection process of political candidates.
Mr. Campbell Bannerman added that a change of leadership was the only chance for the beleaguered Tories, saying: “The Conservatives are guaranteed to lose under Sunak—all the polling, by-elections and local elections prove it. But with a change of leader, the right team and a return to real Conservative policies the Tories could still win.”
Asked what he thought that team could look like, Mr. Campbell Bannerman, who rejoined the Tory party in 2011 after a seven-year hiatus in protest, during which he became Deputy Leader of UKIP, concluded that the next Tory leadership would require a, “strong team of true Conservatives.”
Others are even more pessimistic, with one senior Tory peer telling The Epoch Times simply that the Conservatives are “going to be thrashed” at the ballot box next year.
Government Told To ‘Get Serious’ on Immigration
Yesterday, the government overcame initial resistance to advance its emergency bill aimed at reinstating the deportation of illegal immigrants to Rwanda. The Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill secured a second reading with a vote of 313 to 269, despite notable dissent from the Conservative Party’s right-wing and a threat of future action from the more liberal One Nation caucus.While no Tories voted against the government in the end, significantly 38 Conservative MPs, including former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick, abstained from voting.
Prominent academic and director of PeoplePolling, Matt Goodwin, delivered a stark warning about the possibility of the next election being a “historic” defeat for the Tories.
Speaking to The Epoch Times last week, Mr. Goodwin said, “The blunt reality is unless the Conservative Party gets serious about stopping illegal migration, establishing a third country deterrent, and bringing down legal migration, then it’s not just finished at the next election, but it’s on course for a heavy and perhaps historical defeat.”
