After a strong showing by separatist Parti québécois (PQ) in a recent by-election, and the party releasing a study saying the province would be financially viable outside the confederation, politicians in Ottawa have chimed in on what this could mean.
Federal Transport Minister and the Liberal government’s Quebec lieutenant Pablo Rodriguez warned against re-opening a “divisive” chapter of the country’s history with talks of Quebec independence, while Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre suggested the surge is a reflection of Quebecers being tired of the current party in power in Ottawa.
The PQ, which spent a considerable amount of time in power in the past, has not been faring well in recent years, finishing with only three seats out of 125 at the Quebec National Assembly in the 2022 elections.
But on Oct. 2, the PQ handily won the byelection in the Quebec City riding of Jean-Talon, gaining a seat that had been held by the governing Coalition Avenir Québec since 2019. The PQ had never won a riding in the capital before, and now polls in second place behind the ruling Coalition Avenir Quebec.
The PQ also released on Oct. 23 a study suggesting an independent Quebec would be financially viable.
Mr. Poilievre, whose central message is centred around fiscal responsibility and affordability, focused his message on criticism of the Liberal government.
“The Parti Quebecois mentioned that they want to reach independence for economic reasons,” he said during question period on Oct. 24. “That is something the party would not have dared during Conservative years because taxes were low, debt was low, taxes were low, inflation was low, and growth was strong.”
Mr. Poilievre added the government policies have led to “divisiveness” in Quebec.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau replied by saying the Conservatives were “bringing us back to the old days of provincial squabbles.” He said the Liberals were focused on investments in housing, seniors, and workers “to continue delivering benefits and opportunities for Canadians.”
The PQ study suggests that despite an independent Quebec inheriting almost $400 billion in debt upon independence, it would have advantages when it came to its deficit and the proportion of its debt to its economic output.
The party calculated that Quebec would be able to retain $82.3 billion in annual revenue that the Canadian government would otherwise take, saving a total of $8.8 billion by eliminating redundancy between provincial and federal functions.
“Our situation is slightly more financially favourable if we are a country than if we stay a province in Canada,” said Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. As opposed to his predecessors who said they would wait to gather “winning conditions” before holding a separation referendum, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon said he would call one upon being voted into power.
Mr. Rodriguez told reporters on Oct. 24 that he recalled the 1995 Quebec separatism referendum, which he said drew divisions among Canadians and caused some family members and friends to stop speaking to each other. “Do we really want as a society to plunge back into this?” he said.
Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault shortly after said that the “last thing people want to talk about right now is Quebec’s separation.” He also rejected the argument that an independent Quebec would be better positioned to fight climate change, saying that the province of Quebec uses 360,000 barrels of oil a day and would still need to import it from somewhere.
“We have to tell them there would be sacrifices to be made in the current financial context. When Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon says he wants to make $8.8 billion cuts a year, he should explain to Quebecers what he means,” he said.
The Canadian Press contributed to this report.
