Federal Government Releases Canada’s ‘Just Transition’ Plan Toward ‘Net-Zero World’ in 2050

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson rises during question period on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Feb. 16, 2023. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

The Liberal government has released its “just transition” plan that claims it will not trigger massive unemployment in the country’s energy towns.

Released on Feb. 17, the “Sustainable Jobs Plan” says the federal government aims to create “sustainable jobs” in every region of Canada as it looks to move the country to a “net-zero world.”

“Between now and a net-zero world in 2050, there will be continuing but declining demand for oil and gas in conventional combustion applications,” said the report.

It said the difference post-2050 will be in how oil will be used.

“We will no longer primarily use oil in combustion applications—like cars and buses,” the report said. “Where we will use it beyond 2050 is in mostly non-combustion applications such as petrochemicals, asphalt, lubricants, solvents, carbon graphite and waxes.”

The interim plan lacks many specifics, but it outlines in broad terms the ways the minority government will help maintain and create energy jobs, as well as transfer workers to net-zero jobs as needed.

It includes creating a “central” governance body that will oversee the Liberals’ “just transition” plan from 2023 to 2025.

“Establishing a Sustainable Jobs Secretariat will provide leadership and allow for a whole-of-Government approach on sustainable jobs measures,” the plan said.

“It will also ensure coordination of federal policies and programs among Government departments, and implementation of forthcoming Sustainable Jobs Action Plans.”

Training programs and indigenous consultation will be included as well, according to the plan. It said the federal government intends to introduce legislation later in 2023 to lay out “a framework for accountability, engagement and transparency” on the transition.

Skepticism

The action plan, which will be updated every five years starting in 2025, did not offer any forecast on how many jobs it will create in a net-zero economy, though it stressed that labour shortage will be a more concerning issue than unemployment.

“According to numerous studies, rather than a shortage of jobs, in Canada we are much more likely to see an abundance of sustainable jobs with a shortage of workers required to fill them,” the report said.

In a news release on Feb. 17, the federal natural resources department referred to an estimate by the Royal Bank of Canada that “the net-zero transition could create up to 400,000 new jobs in Canada by the end of this decade alone.”

According to the release, the interim plan comes after two years of consultations with the provinces and territories, industry, indigenous peoples, workers and unions, and other stakeholders.

The plan noted that support for “just transition” differed across regions.

“Support for the legislation varied by region, as workers in Alberta and Saskatchewan expressed concern about the sustainable jobs legislation because they fear their jobs are most at risk in the global transition to a net-zero economy,” it said.

“These workers perceive just transition to be a movement that seeks to phase out fossil fuel jobs.”

Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson has said for months that he prefers the term “sustainable jobs” because it is more accurate.

The report said Canada can still have an oil and gas sector that is “a source of sustainable jobs” provided it makes efforts in “aggressively lowering emissions from the production of fossil fuels, in line with Canada’s climate commitments.”

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith remains skeptical of the Liberals’ claims.

A day before the plan was released, Smith wrote to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urging him to halt the introduction of his “just transition” legislation and oil and gas emissions cap.

“Each of these initiatives, as currently understood, would pose an unconstitutional and existential threat to the Alberta economy and the jobs of hundreds of thousands of Albertans,” she wrote.

‘Grave Concerns’

After the plan was released on Feb. 17, Smith responded with a statement saying that she was “puzzled” by it and that she would contact the Liberal government “in the coming weeks” to discuss issues identified in it.

“Although I note the Plan recognizes that Canada’s oil and gas sector is working towards lowering emissions through investing in emerging clean technologies and will be an important source of the world’s energy for decades, our Government is perplexed by the blatant exclusion of any federal strategy to aggressively increase LNG exports to obtain emissions credits (under international agreements) for replacing higher emitting fuels around the world with Canadian LNG while simultaneously driving economic growth in Alberta and Canada,” the premier said.

“The omission of any LNG strategy in this Plan is completely nonsensical.”

Smith added that her government has “grave concerns” over the lack of recognition in the Liberals’ plan that provinces have constitutional rights over their own natural resources and labour force.

“Implementing a federal plan of this magnitude in areas of exclusive provincial jurisdiction doesn’t merely require piecemeal ‘discussions’ with the provinces, it requires outright provincial approval and cooperation,” she said.

“Alberta has not been involved in any such approvals, nor included in the development of the Plan published today. This kind of dysfunctional communication by the federal government with our province cannot continue if Canada is to have any chance of achieving its 2050 emissions reduction targets.”

The Canadian Press contributed to this report.