Europe Remains Heavily Reliant on US Arms Exports, New Analysis Finds

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute found that U.S. arms transfers to Europe grew by 233 percent from 2020 to 2024.

155mm artillery shells sit in the production shop at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Scranton, Pa., on April 12, 2023. Hannah Beier/Getty Images

The United States grew its share in the global weapons trade while European nations increased their reliance on foreign arms imports between 2020 and 2024, according to the latest research by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published on March 10.

According to the SIPRI report, European arms imports rose 155 percent in the four years between 2020 and 2024.

Much of this shift began after Russian forces marched into Ukraine in February of 2022.

Responding to the Russian assault, Kyiv increased its foreign arms imports nearly 100 times, marking a 9,627 percent increase from 2020 to 2024.

European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have made efforts in recent years to boost their military spending and bolster arms makers on the continent.

Still, if Europe is seeking to reduce its reliance on the U.S. weapons industry, it will have to reverse a trend that has only favored U.S. arms makers over the past four years.

In that time, the United States grew its market share of global arms exports from 35 percent to 43 percent.

Though Saudi Arabia was the top single recipient of U.S. arms, this latest four-year reporting period marks the first time in two decades that the largest share of its weapons exports went to Europe.

In all, U.S. arms sales to Europe rose by 233 percent between 2020 and 2024. Ukraine was the second-largest recipient of American weapons during this time.

“European NATO states have taken steps to reduce their dependence on arms imports and to strengthen the European arms industry, but the transatlantic arms-supply relationship has deep roots,” SIPRI senior researcher Pieter Wezeman said in a statement addressing the think tank’s latest findings.

“Imports from the USA have risen and European NATO states have almost 500 combat aircraft and many other weapons still on order from the USA.”

France sits in the No. 2 spot for global arms exports, but its market share is still only a fourth of that of the United States.

Russian Arms Exports Plummet

Before launching its 2022 assault on Ukraine, Russia had been the second-largest global arms exporter.

Since then, Russia has lost arms sales clients, and Russian weapons makers have had to devote an increasing share of their production to sustaining Moscow’s forces.

According to SIPRI’s analysis of rolling four-year arms sales trends ending in 2021, the last full year before Russia launched its massive assault into Ukraine, Russia conducted major arms sales with 45 recipient states.

The latest SIPRI data, however, finds Russia had just 33 client states making major arms purchases between 2020 and 2024.

“The war against Ukraine has further accelerated the drop in Russia’s arms exports because more weapons are needed on the battlefield, trade sanctions make it harder for Russia to produce and sell its weapons, and the USA and its allies pressure states not to buy Russian arms,” Wezeman said.

Russian arms exports were trending downward even before the current phase of fighting in Ukraine began in 2022, according to SIPRI.

The Stockholm-based researcher found that Russian weapon export volumes in 2020 and 2021 “were much smaller than in any year in the previous two decades.”

India, China, and Kazakhstan are Russia’s first, second, and third biggest clients, respectively, and now account for about two-thirds of Russian arms export traffic.

Beijing More Self-Reliant

The Indo-Pacific region has been and remains a strong market for arms sales, with Asia and Oceania representing the largest import region.

But the trend is moving downward.

Overall, the share of arms transfers flowing to states in this region fell from 41 percent between 2015 and 2019 to 33 percent between 2020 and 2024.

SIPRI found that China has been a driving force in declining arms sales to the Indo-Pacific region.

The ruling Chinese Communist Party has led the state to cut its foreign arms imports by 64 percent since 2015.

“China dropped out of the top 10 arms importers for the first time since 1990–94,” SIPRI’s press statement notes.

SIPRI assessed that China’s arms imports are likely to keep falling as its domestic arms production capabilities improve.

In the 2015-2019 period, China was both the fifth-largest importer of foreign arms and the fifth-largest exporter of weapons.

In this latest four-year rolling reporting period, SIPRI found that China was the 16th largest importer of foreign arms and the fourth largest exporter.

While the United States remains the largest weapons exporter, it’s also the ninth largest importer for this latest four-year reporting period.

Pakistan is a top client for arms sales from China, accounting for some 63 percent of communist China’s foreign arms transfers.

China’s second and third top clients for arms sales were Serbia and Thailand, accounting for 6.8 percent and 4.6 percent of China’s foreign arms sales, respectively.

SIPRI found that the United States accounted for 37 percent of total arms sales in the Asia and Oceania region, while Russia supplied 17 percent of weapons sales, and China provided 14 percent.

While China’s growing domestic military production is driving down its reliance on foreign arms imports, SIPRI assessed the perception that a growing Chinese regional threat is driving the arms procurement decisions of many other nations in the Asia and Oceania region.