WA to Need 5-Times More Power If Government’s Electrification Plans Succeed

Three wind turbines can be seen near Albany, Western Australia, on Oct 13, 2023. Susan Mortimer/The Epoch Times

More power generators will be needed if the Western Australian (WA) government succeeds in decarbonising—and electrifying—much of its economy, with new modelling revealing electricity needs to increase five-fold.

The Cook Labor government on Dec. 13 released its sectoral emissions reduction strategy (SERS) among dozens of other initiatives that aim to drive wider electrification in WA.

The strategy revealed a plan to pour billions of dollars into transforming the state’s transmission infrastructure, establish a “green export industry,” and invest over $200 million (US$133 million) in accelerating the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs).

The document (pdf), published on Dec. 13, outlined pathways for sectors in the state including electricity, industry, transport, agriculture and land, and buildings and waste to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Higher Electricity Demand

The government’s modelling suggested that demand could “increase more than five-fold for current and new applications in the SWIS (South West Interconnected System) and Pilbara by 2050.”

“This includes electrification of transport, mining, natural gas liquefaction and chemical production, and development of future industries such as hydrogen and green ammonia,” the strategy said.

The document also revealed the state’s plan to replace thermal generation with zero‑emissions electricity, which will “require more renewable generation and storage because of the variable nature of wind and solar resources.”

“About 60 gigawatts (GW) of new generation (including storage) could be required in the SWIS by 2050, and 50 GW in the Pilbara.”

Electricity Decarbonisation

In an attempt to decarbonise the electricity sector, the government had secured up to $3 billion (US$2 billion) from the federal government’s Rewiring the Nation program and is spending more than $2 billion (US$1.34 billion) on extensive battery systems in Kwinana and Collie.

“Achieving net zero emissions across the economy requires the electricity sector to decarbonise faster than other sectors while meeting a step change in total demand as other sectors electrify,” the report noted.

The state is “well positioned to become a globally significant exporter of green hydrogen and green ammonia and contribute to the decarbonisation of global steelmaking,” according to WA Climate Action Minister Reece Whitby.

The state currently accounts for about half of global lithium production and is a major exporter of nickel, cobalt, manganese, and rare earths.

Under the plan, the government would invest heavily in the SWIS—the state’s primary energy grid—and in the Pilbara region to develop the transmission infrastructure required for decarbonisation plans and to create renewable generation hubs.

Mr. Whitby said that the state government “has an important role to play in incentivising and facilitating investment in Western Australia’s net zero transition.”

“Work is already underway to drive WA towards a zero emissions future,” he said in a press release on Dec. 13.

“By working with industry, the state government can ensure WA’s clean energy future while making the most of the economic opportunities on offer.”

Net Zero Goals

Under the WA government’s net zero target, the state would cut emissions from its operations to 80 percent below 2020 levels and retire all state‑owned coal‑fired electricity generation by 2030.

The strategy also projected that by 2050, up to 96 percent of energy consumed would come from renewable generation, compared with 34 percent currently in the SWIS and 2 percent in the Pilbara.

At the same time, the government would fast-track the approval process of electricity transmission infrastructure. It has set up a $32 million dedicated Green Energy Approvals team to streamline approvals for proponents and investors in renewable energy, critical minerals, and hydrogen projects.

In addition, $4.3 million (US$2.88 million) would go to developing a carbon capture utilisation and storage action plan to “address emissions from LNG production and to support the development of new low‑carbon industries.”

In terms of transport, the state set up an ambitious plan of cutting transport emissions by about 70 percent by 2050 and increased the public sector EV target to “at least 50 percent of all new fleet purchases.”

It has invested more than $200 million in the state electric vehicle strategy, which includes providing rebates to those buying an eligible EV, funding the installation of EV chargers, and delivering 130 locally built electric buses.

WA’s Energy And Gas Shortage

Additional investment in decarbonisation comes despite concerns that WA is heading for an energy shortage as a result of the transition to a renewable economy.

According to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) 2023 Electricity Statement of Opportunities report (pdf) for WA’s main electricity network, the state could face a shortage of 945 megawatts of electricity in 2025-26 and around 4,000 megawatts by 2032-33, which was much worse than what was predicted in the 2022 outlook.

The report cited a reduction in coal-fired generation and strong growth in electricity demand driven by the transition to renewable energy as the main reasons for the potential shortfalls.

Specifically, the AEMO pointed to WA’s plan to retire Synergy’s Collie and Muja D Power Stations in phases by 2030 and the Bluewaters Power Station from 2030-2031.

These shutdowns will cause the state to lose 1,366 megawatts of generation capacity in the next decade, posing significant risks to the electricity grid.

“The rapid energy transition is now fuelling very strong forecast growth in electricity demand. At the same time, we’re transitioning to new, lower-emissions sources of supply and managing the phase-out of coal-fired generation,” said AEMO Executive General Manager Western Australia and Strategy Kate Ryan.

Meanwhile, the AEMO’s annual outlook on the WA gas market revealed the state’s shortage of gas supply might force it to depend on natural gas that comes from storage from the export market.

Alfred Bui contributed to this report.