Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has unveiled new modelling to support his proposed East Coast Gas Reservation policy, revealing it could reduce household electricity bills by around 3 percent by 2026.
The analysis, conducted by Frontier Economics and released nearly two weeks after the plan’s initial announcement, coincided with the first leaders’ debate of the federal election campaign.
According to the modelling, wholesale gas prices would fall from approximately $14 per gigajoule to $10, driven by a mandatory diversion of up to 100 petajoules of gas from export markets into the domestic supply, a 10–20 percent increase in local availability.
This would be enforced through a newly introduced “gas security charge,” aiming to stabilise local supply and shield Australian consumers from volatile international markets.
“We sit on some of the most abundant gas reserves in the world—it’s time we unlocked those resources to lower prices, protect jobs, and power Australia,” Dutton said during the debate.
Dutton’s Gas Plan: Infrastructure Boost, Supply Expansion
Key measures include a $300 million Strategic Basin Plan to fast-track the development of new supply, including projects in Beetaloo and Narrabri.
An additional $1 billion fund will be established to build critical infrastructure that delivers gas to high-demand areas.
The Coalition also promises to cut approval timeframes, introduce “use it or lose it” rules for idle offshore gas titles, and defund the Environmental Defenders Office, which it claims has hampered development.
As part of the plan, gas will be added to the Capacity Investment Scheme to ensure reliable gas-fired electricity generation.
Dutton’s team believes these combined efforts will lower wholesale energy prices by 8 percent, cut industrial gas bills by 15 percent, and reduce household gas bills by 7 percent.
Labor Labels It ‘Gaslighting’ Policy
Despite the bold claims, the Coalition admits the benefits won’t be felt immediately.The party’s energy spokesperson, Ted O'Brien, confirmed that consumers would need to wait at least 12 months from when the policy is made to see reductions in bills, as the plan’s impact filters through long-term contracts and legislation.
“As that filters through with contracts, then by the end of the first 12-month period, industry [and] households should be seeing the impact,” he told ABC Radio.
That timing, however, depends on legislation passing through parliament—a process that will only begin if the Coalition wins the May 3 federal election.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese dismissed the policy, saying the only gas policy they have is of “gaslighting the Australian public.”
Labor’s campaign spokesperson, Jason Clare, went further, branding the announcement a “distraction” designed to divert attention from the Coalition’s costlier nuclear energy plan.
Energy War to Define the Election?
Energy relief has remained a central theme in the campaign and dominated the leaders’ debate, with Dutton accusing Labor of breaking its promise to cut power bills by $275.Albanese responded by saying that if nuclear was viable, the private sector would fund it.
“Instead, experts agree it’s the most expensive new energy source,” he said.
Albanese said Labor’s approach centres on renewables backed by gas, hydro and battery storage, with safeguards to secure local gas supply.
He challenged Dutton on his nuclear plan, warning it would cost $600 billion for just 4 percent of Australia’s power needs by the 2040s.
“What will you cut to pay for it?” he asked, adding that private investors wouldn’t touch it because “it doesn’t stack up.”
Dutton rebutted, labelling the figure dishonest and citing a CSIRO report suggesting costs would be closer to $120 billion.
“Our plan, independently costed by Frontier Economics, is 44 percent cheaper than Labor’s $600 billion renewables-only plan,” he said, pointing to countries like France and China where nuclear plays a key role—unlike Australia, where power bills keep rising.
