With less than a week until the polls, China has entered the Australian election debate.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton called China the biggest threat to Australia’s national security during the final leadership debate on April 27.
“If you were to believe the intelligence that I received as defence minister and as the leader of the opposition, and no doubt that the prime minister receives as well, the biggest concern [comes] from our intelligence agencies and our defence,” Dutton said in connection to China.
When confronted with his views on the subject, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese took a more diplomatic line.
“China seeks to increase its influence in the region,” he said, adding that the relationship with China is complex because it is “our major trading partner.”
When pressed repeatedly to directly name China as the biggest threat, Albanese said, “I’m the prime minister of a country, and how you deal as prime minister is diplomatically, and that is what we continue to do.”
Albanese cited the recent Papua New Guinea NRL deal as a key step by his government to address the situation. Under the deal, Australia will provide $600 million over a decade to help establish the team.Australia-China Stability Tested
Australia’s relationship with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) saw cautious stabilisation in 2024, building on the thaw that began after Albanese’s Labor government took office in 2022.
A breakthrough came when Beijing lifted its trade ban on live rock lobsters, ending a key pillar of its earlier campaign of economic coercion.
Anti-dumping tariffs on Australian wine were also removed, beef exports resumed with the lifting of restrictions on two meat processors, and Canberra ended its anti-dumping measures on Chinese sinks.
Travel links also improved, with Beijing expanding visa-free access for Australians from 15 to 30 days.
Diplomatic activity and high-level meetings resumed, with Foreign Ministers Penny Wong and Wang Yi holding multiple rounds of talks, Premier Li Qiang visiting Australia, and Treasurer Jim Chalmers travelling to Beijing.
Yet tensions lurked just beneath the surface. The sentencing of Australian pro-democracy writer Yang Jun to death with a two-year reprieve drew condemnation from Canberra.
Australian intelligence agencies warned of rising espionage and foreign interference, culminating in the first local conviction under foreign interference laws.
Cybersecurity remained a battleground, with Australia joining allies in exposing CCP-linked hacking operations.
Military tensions also flared when a Chinese fighter jet dangerously deployed flares near an Australian navy helicopter in the Yellow Sea. Through it all, CCP state media kept up its propaganda on AUKUS, the Quad, and Australia’s growing military ties with the United States.
A Critical Year Ahead
A new analysis from the UTS’s Australia-China Relations Institute warns that the Trump administration and the Australian election outcome will heavily influence the next chapter of the Australia-China relationship.
Economic warfare between the United States and China could sharpen Australia’s dilemma between its security alliance with Washington and its economic dependence on Beijing.
The report notes that a U.S.-China tech war could push Australia to tighten controls on critical minerals or join a U.S.-led supply chain.
Conversely, a Trump retreat from the green energy transition could ease pressure on Australian lithium exports to China.
Meanwhile, growing Chinese aggression in the South China Sea—and potential U.S. intervention—could pull Canberra into direct confrontation.
