Communities across Australia are being warned to brace for damaging floods and fires as the severe weather season bears down on the continent.
Persistent heat and more heavy rain over already sodden catchments are expected to test emergency management teams during spring and summer.
The majority of the Australian landmass is more than twice as likely to experience hotter-than-average maximum temperatures over the next three months, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast.
Minimum temperatures are even more likely to exceed historical averages, with large swathes of the nation three times as likely to swelter through hotter-than-average nights.
That meant a greater risk of dangerous heatwaves, said the bureau’s general manager of environmental prediction Matt Collopy.
“If we’re looking at things like heatwaves and what really affect people in terms of heat, it’s not just the maximum or the hottest part of the day, it’s the minimums as well,” he said.
“It’s the prolonged hot maximum and minimum temperatures over several days in a row.”
Increased fire risks are expected across the Top End, in inland Northern Territory, southern Queensland from Toowoomba to Winton and in western Victoria stretching across the South Australia border, according to the seasonal bushfire outlook.
Recent heavy rainfall means bushfire risks for much of the nation are around average.
Still, communities were warned that dangerous and deadly fires often occur during average and below-average seasons.
Conditions are not expected to match the extreme, widespread disasters that devastated the country during the Black Summer bushfires of 2019/20, but emergency management teams are still busy building up their stockpiles.
That event was the catalyst for an overhaul of Australia’s emergency management system, said Joe Buffone, deputy coordinator‐general of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA).
The agency was set up in the wake of Black Summer to provide greater clarity on when the commonwealth will step in to provide support.
Governments have also upped investment in response capabilities.
NEMA has upgraded its fleet of 160 aircraft to provide support beyond the narrow remit of fighting bushfires, including resupplying communities and moving personnel during floods and tropical cyclones.
“We saw pretty much 3000 kilmetres of fire-front on the east coast with other events happening, including cyclones and others,” Buffone said.
“So we saw that classic consecutive, concurrent event and this is very much about continuing to build on those learnings.”
Higher-than-average recent rainfall has resulted in unusually moist soil for much of the east coast, meaning further heavy downfalls are more likely to result in floods.
Southern Australia usually experiences more thunderstorm activity in spring as cold fronts pass across the south.
Tasmania has already suffered severe flooding, when early spring storms lashed the island state.
NEMA has also welcomed the delivery of its sixth Humanihut camp, which can provide upwards of 700 civilians or more than 1400 emergency workers with temporary accommodation in a disaster zone.
Along with additional generators, water filtration, purification and storage equipment in the emergency stockpile, Australia has more emergency shelters available than ever before, said Emergency Management Minister Jenny McAllister.
“These camps will ensure that clean-up and restoration activity is faster, that community recovery is faster, and that emergency workers can comfortably and safely rest between long shifts,” she said.
Communities across Australia’s tropical cyclone belt can expect an average risk of monsoonal activity, but Collopy warned that was no reason to let their guard down.
The federal government will hold a national preparedness summit in Canberra next week to further hone its response capability.
