With the United States currently struggling to build enough submarines to meet its own needs, there’s speculation that incoming President Donald Trump’s “America first” philosophy may jeopardise the deal, but Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles says the partnership is “happening and on course” on the eve of Trump’s inauguration.
The issue for the United States is that the deal requires the sale of at least three—and possibly as many as five—Virginia-class attack submarines to Australia by the early 2030s as a stopgap until the new AUKUS subs are built.
Those would then be replaced by a new class of nuclear-powered boats to be built for delivery from the 2040s.
Any reduction in the United States’ defence capacity is likely at odds with Trump’s “America first” position, leading to speculation that the deal may be in jeopardy. But set against that is the president-elect’s history, during his previous term, of building alliances with other Western countries against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
There’s also the fact he appointed two CCP hawks to top national security posts: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as secretary of state and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) as national security adviser. Both were on the Congressional Foreign Affairs committees that handled legislation to implement AUKUS, so they will be aware of its broad bipartisan support in Congress.
Marles said the challenges facing the U.S. manufacturing base were well known, and that Australia had taken the unprecedented step of making a “significant contribution” to improve production rates.
“We are confident that, in terms of the trajectory of production which needs to be achieved in order for this to all play out, that we are on that pathway as we speak,” he told ABC’s RN on Jan. 20.
“Everything that we have seen is what is playing out. All the agreements that we’ve asked to be signed and steps to be taken are being taken. AUKUS is happening, and it is on course.
“We can draw confidence from this because AUKUS is in the strategic interests of the United States as it, of course, is in the strategic interests of Australia and the United Kingdom. That’s why, fundamentally, people support it across the political spectrum, in all three countries, and why we feel very confident about its progress over the next four years.”
Australia Needs to Show Its Value
James Corera, director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI) Cyber, Technology and Security program and Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with the Institute, warn that “Australia and Britain ... seem in some policies to be putting trade with China ahead of long-term security concerns. That won’t be welcomed by Trump’s team, especially if accompanied by any expectation that the United States takes on the economic and security risks emanating from China.”They say the answer is for Australia to show Trump a “persuasive value proposition around what [it is] doing for its own security and, as a result, for regional security and the Australia-U.S. alliance.”
That will mean lifting spending on defence and technologies to enhance military and cyber capabilities.
They cite Trump’s demand that NATO allies lift defence spending to 5 percent of GDP and suggest Australia should consider a similar boost “not because of fear of Trump but because [it faces] security threats.”
The country should also do much more to improve its capability in cyberspace and in space, Correra and Davis say.
“With almost daily reports about Beijing’s increasing control of the information domain, including through the hacking of U.S. and Australian critical infrastructure, Australia should make addressing Beijing’s malign actions a top-tier joint effort with the Trump administration, using and going beyond AUKUS Pillar 2 on advanced technologies,” they said.
“The cyber effort should be complemented by greater investment in space security that allows us to burden-share in orbit.”
While these proposals come at a cost, the anti-Beijing posture of the incoming Trump administration also has potential gains for Australia, as the United States seeks to secure its supply chains by reducing reliance on raw materials from, and components made in, China.
“The Trump administration is likely to expect Australia to play a leading role in securing resilient supply chains, particularly for critical minerals,” they say.
“Building on its spending on the Future Made in Australia policy, Canberra should consider further developing local processing capabilities, establishing joint ventures with foreign companies—including U.S. companies—and securing diversified long-term supply contracts to reduce reliance on China.”
Foreign Minister Penny Wong is currently in Washington and will attend the inauguration ceremony. She will also meet members of the Trump administration and Congress during her visit.
Australia’s ambassador to the U.S., Kevin Rudd, has also been invited.
