The Conservatives are starting the new year on a high note with a 17-point lead over the governing Liberals, according to a newly released popularity poll.
The latest survey of voters by Abacus Data found that 41 percent of voters would support Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives if the election were held today. The party also leads in every demographic group and in every region with the exception of Quebec.
While the Tories’ popularity rose by four points, the Liberals’ dropped by three, reaching 24 percent of the vote. The NDP and the Green Party garnered 18 percent and 4 percent respectively, while the Bloc Québécois sat at 7 percent in Canada, but had 33 percent support in Quebec.
The four-point increase for the Conservatives and a three-point decrease for the Liberals since last month’s survey, is a “statistically significant shift in voter intentions,” Abacus CEO David Coletto said in a Jan. 11 blog post about the results.
As the House of Commons is set to resume in nearly three weeks, the Conservatives’ overall lead is slightly down from an average polling high point in November and December, according to 338 Canada. A late October Pallas Data poll put their recent peak popularity at 43 percent after a previous two-month surge.
Demographic Breakdown
Regionally, the Conservatives have a strong lead in the Prairies, with a 49-point lead over the Liberals in Alberta and a 44-point lead in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The Tories enjoy a 17-point lead over the Liberals in B.C. and a 12-point lead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada.In Quebec, the Bloc leads with 33 percent followed by the Liberals at 27 percent and the Conservatives at 22 percent.
The Conservative Party took the No. 1 slot across all age groups, although the Liberals’ voter share increased with the age of respondents. This trend is reversed for the NDP.
The Conservatives were popular with both genders, taking 44 percent of the male vote and 37 percent of the female vote. The Liberals and the NDP were neck-and-neck with women, garnering 25 and 24 percent respectively while NDP support among males was only 14 percent compared to Liberals at 23 percent.
When respondents were asked about their openness to voting for each main political party, 54 percent expressed willingness to consider the Conservatives, up four points since Dec. 12, while 41 percent were open to the Liberals, down 2 points. The NDP sat at 41 percent.
This marks the smallest pool of accessible voters for the Liberals recorded by Abacus Data since 2015.
In recent weeks, public sentiment toward Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the Liberal government, and Canada’s overall trajectory has notably worsened, according to the survey. The proportion of people who believe the country is moving in the right direction has decreased three points to 24 percent since December, approaching the lowest level ever recorded.
Additionally, the federal government’s approval rating has declined, with the disapproval rate rising by two points to 58 percent. This level of disapproval is equal to the highest recorded since the Liberals took office in 2015.
The survey introduced a new metric for assessing voter motivation, which could be an indicator of potential voter turnout differences by party.
Findings suggest that Conservative supporters are more likely to vote compared to their Liberal or NDP counterparts, with a significant six-point difference in enthusiasm between Conservative and Liberal supporters.
The survey included 1,500 respondents and took place between Jan. 4 and 9.
In December, an Abacus Data survey detailed the expectations and desires of Canadians toward a hypothetical Conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre.
The survey aimed to gauge the success of the Conservatives in agenda-setting, the changes in their support base, and the strategies the Liberals might need to counteract Conservative appeal.
While Canadians generally lack certainty about the actions a Conservative government would take, they strongly associate the party with the elimination of the national carbon tax.
In comparison to a survey conducted in April, the December survey shows Canadians’ belief that such a government would abolish the carbon tax rose 14 points (to 58 percent), improve housing affordability by nine points (to 39 percent), reduce taxes rose by six points (to 36 percent), and take climate change more seriously, which rose five points to 34 percent.
