Tories Lead Liberals by 8 Points as Inflation, Housing, and Health Care Become ‘Most Important Issues’: Poll

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre greet each other in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Sept. 15, 2022. Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press

The federal Conservatives have gained an eight-point lead over the Liberals as over 70 percent of Canadians do not think the minority government is focused enough on addressing the cost of living, housing, or health care, according to a poll by Abacus Data.

The survey, conducted online with 1,500 Canadian adults from Jan. 27–30 and in partnership with The Toronto Star, says if an election were held today, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives would capture 37 percent of the vote, while the Liberals would get 29 percent, followed by 18 percent for the NDP and 7 percent for the Bloc Québécois.

“Since the 2022 election, support for the Liberal Party is down 4 while the Conservatives have gained 3 points,” said the poll, released on Feb. 1.

Public mood “continues to worsen” as Canadians are not feeling positive about the direction the country is going, according to Abacus chief pollster David Coletto in the survey.

“Today, fewer Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction than at any point in the past three years,” Coletto said.

“[Thirty] percent think things are going in the right direction while more than half [55 percent] think things are off on the wrong track.”

‘Not Focused’

Respondents were asked if they felt the federal government headed by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was “focused too much, as much as they should be, or not focused on issues” that matter to Canadians.

“[Fifty] percent have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, and large majorities don’t feel the Liberal government is focused enough on the most important issues of the day—inflation, housing, and healthcare,” Coletto said.

Specifically, the results indicated 72 percent of Canadians do not perceive the federal government as being “genuinely focused and working hard” to deal with the rising cost of living, the cost of housing (70 percent), and the problems with the country’s health-care system (66 percent).

More than half (52 percent) also think the Liberal government is not paying enough attention to reducing the federal deficit and growing the economy. Another 42 percent hold the view that the Trudeau government has not focused enough on the threats posed by China, the survey found, based on answers from both Liberal and non-Liberal supporting respondents.

‘Dissatisfaction’

Satisfaction with the government remains “largely unchanged.”

“Today, 34 percent approve, and 49 percent disapprove of the performance of the federal government, a two-point rise in disapproval since earlier this month,” said the poll, adding that the disapproval has remained between 47 percent and 51 percent since last summer.

Should the Conservatives be in power today, the survey noted that Canadians are “more likely to believe” the Tories would focus more on reducing the deficit, growing the economy, and addressing the cost of living, cost of housing, and public safety than the Liberals.

“In contrast, more think they would be less focused than the Liberals on indigenous reconciliation, climate change, and reducing racism and inequality,” it said.

Coletto said the Liberals’ declining vote share is “more about dissatisfaction” with the government than “enthusiasm for the Conservatives.”

“Pierre Poilievre’s personal image has neither improved nor deteriorated—perhaps a win given the environment,” the chief pollster said.

“But he’s benefiting from a Liberal brand that’s suffering from a weakened anchor (the Prime Minister and Liberal Leader) and deteriorating issue ownership.”

Impression of Poilievre remains at “one-third positive, one-third negative, [and] one-third neutral,” the poll said.