Conservatives Face Prospect of Another By-Election After Suspension of MP

Peter Bone, Conservative MP is seen in London, England on July 6, 2022. Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images

Britain could hold another by-election after the suspension of the MP for Wellingborough over bullying and sexual misconduct relating to a staff member.

The Conservatives are at risk of losing another seat, following the six-week suspension of Peter Bone from the Commons.

The Parliament’s Independent Expert Panel (IEP) has found that Mr. Bone committed five acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct by indecently exposing himself to a staff member.

The bullying involved violence, shouting and swearing, mocking, belittling and humiliating behaviour, and ostracism, which often happened in front of others, the IEP report revealed.

Mr. Bone has appealed the IEP decision and denies the incidents took place. The panel has dismissed his appeal and recommended a six-week suspension.

The length of the suspension is above the ten-day threshold to trigger a recall petition, which will be opened in due course.

If at least 10 percent of voters sign the petition, a by-election will take place in Wellingborough.

Series of By-Elections

This doesn’t come as good news for the Conservative Party, which has only managed to hold one seat in seven by-elections, that took place this year.

That seat was previously held by the former prime minister Boris Johnson, who stood down in July. While the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat was secured by another Conservative, Steve Tuckwell, Mr. Johnson’s departure had triggered a number of Tory resignations.

Johnson supporters Christopher Pincher, Nadine Dorries and Nigel Adams stood down in the past few months, which led to by-elections in their constituencies of Tamworth, Mid Bedfordshire, and Selby and Ainsty.

All three seats were taken over by the opposition.

Overall, in 2023, Labour gained hold of four seats as a result of by-elections and kept hold of another seat in West Lancashire.

This creates a potential headache for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who will lead the party into the next general election, due by January 2025.

Mr. Sunak inherited the House of Commons majority in the last election, when the Conservatives won 365 seats. The number now stands at 352.

Mr. Bone’s suspension is the latest blow to the Tory grip on power in Westminster.

Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden admitted that any by-election “for a government that has been in power for 13 years” will be “challenging.”

“But if there is a by-election, and it is a very big ‘if’, then we will go out and make our case,” he said.

Impact on General Election

Mr. Dowden also suggested that by-election swings are rarely replicated at general elections.

“When it comes to the general election, there is a choice. And there are only two people who can be prime minister—Rishi Sunak or Sir Keir Starmer, and I’m confident both in the vision Rishi Sunak set out, and in the leadership he is capable of giving,” Mr. Dowden said.

The latest voting intention poll by IPSOS showed that 44 percent of voters would support Labour in the next general election. This compares to 24 percent who would back the Conservatives.

A by-election in Wellingborough could add to the continuous exodus of Conservative MPs and increase the grip on power by the opposition.

The shadow leader of the House of Commons, Lucy Powell, suggested that Mr. Bone “should save his constituents the disruption of a recall petition and resign.”

“The people of Wellingborough deserve an MP they can be proud of. The country deserves the change that only Labour can bring,” Ms. Powell said on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Market research consultancy, Savanta UK, has predicted that Mr. Bone’s seat of Wellingborough would switch to Labour at a general election.

Its survey showed that 47 percent would support Labour and only 35 percent would back the Conservative Party to hold the seat.