Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives lead the Liberals in projected seat victories for Canada’s next federal election, according to pollster Nanos Research.
The Liberals won 160 seats compared to the Conservatives’ 119 in the snap election Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called in September 2021.
Led by Erin O'Toole, the Conservatives won the popular vote, but heavily lost seats to the Liberals in Ontario and Quebec, which hold a combined 198 seats of the country’s total 337.
“In the past, the Conservatives have led but haven’t been efficient at converting into seats,” said Nanos, adding that new monthly polling shows Poilievre’s Conservatives increasing their popularity in Ontario.
Nanos said traditional Liberal ridings in Ontario are beginning to look less secure in recent projections, with the Conservatives and NDP challenging the Liberals for some key Ontario seats.
“You can see ridings like Oakville in play, Hamilton in play,” he said. “Look at Oshawa—too close to call.”
“Ontario is really the one to look at,” Nanos said, adding that new projections bring good news for Ontario Conservative candidates.
“Conservatives are doing better in Ontario than they have in the past, and as a result, it’s yielding more seats,” he said.
“The proportion of Canadians who are unsure who they would prefer as PM is down from 25 to 20 percent,” Nanos said. “Numbers are starting to trend positively for Poilievre.”
Speaking on Trend Line podcast, Nanos said Trudeau’s Liberals may have to start considering renewing their “mission and vision for the country” if they want to retain popularity.
“If they don’t do renewal and just think that they can do what they’ve done in the last few years, I’m not sure that’s going to work,” Nanos said.
“If you’re Justin Trudeau, and an adviser to Justin Trudeau, you’ve got to be thinking, ‘Oh, boy, there’s some ridings at risk that are traditionally Liberal ridings and have to be very careful on what happens in the next couple of years.”
