Conservative Friedrich Merz Wins German Election

Christian Democratic Union is heading into what are likely to be lengthy coalition talks without a strong negotiating hand.

Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany's conservative Christian Democratic Union and his party's main candidate for chancellor, addresses supporters after the first exit polls in the German general elections were announced on TV, in Berlin on Feb. 23, 2025. Ina Fassbender/AFP via Getty Images

Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has emerged as the winner of the federal election, while the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has placed second with its best-ever result, according to preliminary results.

Led by Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) capitalized on widespread discontent over inflation, rising energy costs, and immigration policies to get 22.5 percent of the vote, followed by Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 20.8 percent, according to preliminary results released by the German election authority. The CDU is in a conservative alliance with the Christian Social Union (CSU), which received six percent of the vote.

“Tonight we will celebrate, and from tomorrow we start working ... The world out there is not waiting for us,” 69-year-old Merz told supporters.

Merz is heading into what are likely to be lengthy coalition talks without a strong negotiating hand. While the CDU-CSU bloc emerged with 28.5 percent of the vote combined, the CDU recorded its second-worst postwar result.

It remains unclear whether Merz will need one or two partners to form a majority. A three-way coalition would likely be far more unwieldy, hindering Germany’s ability to demonstrate clear leadership.

One outcome of the election could be a two-way coalition of Merz’s conservative bloc and Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats center-left (SPD), who got 16.4 percent of the vote.

On Feb. 24, German conservatives vowed to move quickly to form a government, with Merz aiming to have one in place by Easter.

“From our point of view, (talks) can start very, very quickly,” senior conservative CDU politician Jens Spahn said.

“The first talks should certainly be held this week, in the next few days. We see the situation in the world, Ukraine, Russia, the United States,” he said. “German leadership is needed.”

The coalition involving Social Democrats (SPD), the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), and the Green Party lost ground and collapsed in November.

On Sunday, the Green Party won 11.6 percent and the far-left Die Linke (the Left) party won 8.8 percent of the vote.

Both the center-right Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the left-wing nationalist, populist, euroskeptic, and socially conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance failed to meet the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament.

Merz inherits a Germany that has been dogged by economic woes and multiple high-profile terror attacks.

Europe’s largest manufacturing economy is in its second year of contraction, struggling with the loss of affordable Russian gas, historic Volkswagen plant closures, and fierce competition from cheaper Chinese electric vehicles.

The country has gone through a major population change, with Germany’s net population increasing by more than 3.5 million between 2014 and 2024, driven entirely by migration.

In 2015, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel accepted more than 1 million Syrian refugees into Germany.

According to a recent YouGov poll, 80 percent of Germans believe that immigration levels have been too high over the past decade.

Merz and the CDU will also face challenges in forming a stable coalition government. Potential partners include the FDP and the more moderate wing of the Green Party, although negotiations are expected to be complex.

Merz has ruled out the party forming a government with the AfD.

The AfD campaigned for strict border controls, a reduction in asylum seekers, and the ditching of net zero climate requirements.

There are questions about whether the CDU under Merz will absorb some of the AfD’s messaging.

Merz has taken a hawkish stance on immigration, but has wavered on issues such as nuclear energy.

Ralph Schoellhammer, political theorist and head of the Center for Applied History and International Relations Theory at Mathias Corvinus Collegium, previously told The Epoch Times that the most likely scenario would be a coalition consisting of the CDU, the SPD, and the FDP.

Another possibility would be the CDU, the Green Party, and the FDP.

Schoellhammer said people vote for Merz because they want a center-right government, but they are probably going to end up “getting a slightly left-of-center government because he’s standing alone.”

He said Merz has “completely destroyed negotiations” by stating that he would never govern with the AfD.

“He’s telling the Greens and the Social Democrats, ‘I can only negotiate with you,’” Schoellhammer said.

Under German rules, smaller parties need to meet a 5 percent vote threshold to get into parliament, which can make all the difference for potential future coalition negotiations.

Reuters contributed to this report.