Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has emerged as the winner in the federal election, and Alternative for Germany (AfD) has come in second with its best ever result, projected results show.
On Feb. 23, Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc capitalized on widespread discontent over inflation, rising energy costs, and immigration policies to earn 28.7 percent of the vote, followed by the AfD with 19.8 percent, the projection published by public broadcaster ZDF showed.
“Tonight we will celebrate, and from tomorrow we start working. ... The world out there is not waiting for us,” 69-year-old Merz, the leader of the CDU, told supporters.
Merz is heading into what are likely to be lengthy coalition talks without a strong negotiating hand. While his CDU/CSU emerged as the largest bloc, it scored its second worst postwar result.
It remains unclear whether Merz will need one or two partners to form a majority. A three-way coalition would likely be much more unwieldy, hampering Germany’s ability to show clear leadership.
In the past few years, the coalition involving Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), and the Green Party has lost ground.
Scholz’s SPD tumbled to its worst result since World War II, with 16.4 percent of the vote share, according to the ZDF projection, while the Green Party won 12.3 percent and the far-left Die Linke party won 8.9 percent of the vote.
The FDP and newcomer Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance hovered at about the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament.
Merz inherits a Germany that has been dogged by economic woes and multiple high-profile terror attacks.
In 2015, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel accepted more than 1 million Syrian refugees into Germany.
Merz and the CDU will also face challenges in forming a stable coalition government. Potential partners include the FDP and the more moderate wing of the Green Party, although negotiations are expected to be complex.
Merz has ruled out the party forming a government with the AfD.
The AfD campaigned for strict border controls, a reduction in asylum seekers, and the ditching of net zero climate requirements.
There are questions about whether the CDU under Merz will absorb some of the AfD’s messaging.
Merz has taken a hawkish stance on immigration, but has wavered on issues such as nuclear energy.
Another possibility would be the CDU, the Green Party, and the FDP.
Schoellhammer said people vote for Merz because they want a center-right government, but they are probably going to end up “getting a slightly left-of-center government because he’s standing alone.”
He said Merz has “completely destroyed negotiations” by stating that he would never govern with the AfD.
“He’s telling the Greens and the Social Democrats, ‘I can only negotiate with you,’” Schoellhammer said.
Under German rules, smaller parties need to meet a 5 percent vote threshold to get into parliament, which can make all the difference for potential future coalition negotiations.
