Colombia Spirals Toward ‘Failed State’ Under Exploding Cartel Violence: Experts

The ’total peace' initiative appears to have backfired, although for now cartels and splinter groups are now more focused on fighting each other than the state.

A police officer stands guard next to debris of a toll attacked with explosives in Villa del Rosario, Norte de Santander province, Colombia, on February 20, 2025. Four bomb attacks, including one with a car bomb, were carried out between Wednesday night and Thursday morning in two Colombian cities bordering Venezuela, possibly by ELN guerrillas, officials said. Schneyder Mendoza/AFP via Getty Images

Drug cartels are tightening their grip on Colombia amid failed peace initiatives, economic stagnation, and forced recruitment into terrorist groups, say experts.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” initiative aimed to enforce a 2016 peace accord struck between the former Santos administration and the decades-old terrorist group the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

In 2022, Petro’s expansion of the law aimed to “carry out dialogues” with the FARC terrorists. Under that same umbrella, Petro’s initiative hoped to tackle land redistribution programs and shift away from policies that focused on the forced eradication of coca grown for narcotrafficking.

More than two years later, clashes between terrorist groups and police forces are down, but violence between cartels and forced recruitment is growing.

“One may argue the ceasefire Petro organized contributed to this and allowed these groups to get more organized,” Tiziano Breda, senior analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean at Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, told The Epoch Times.

Breda shared insights into Colombia’s worsening crime dynamic, which he said has pushed the nation to the brink of becoming a “failed state.”

He said for the moment, cartels and their splinter groups are now more focused on fighting each other than the state. Breda also observed that conflicts have become “hyper-localized” during his on-location work in Colombia.

“They’re fighting more for control among each other. Not only are the relationships between groups open to changes all the time but also within the groups,” Breda said.

Illegal mining and drug trafficking are among the chief activities used to bankroll cartel activities in Colombia, especially in the department of Norte de Santander.

The Catatumbo area of Norte de Santander near Colombia’s shared border with Venezuela is one of the most heavy drug trafficking regions in the country. It’s also a stronghold for the National Liberation Army (ELN) terrorist group.

Indigenous people of the Nasa ethnic group burn uniforms seized from ELN guerrillas in Corinto, Cauca department, Colombia, on July 6, 2018. Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images

Petro reopened Colombia’s border with Venezuela in 2022 after the previous administration severed diplomatic ties in 2019. Since then, illegal activity has soared, prompting many to criticize Petro’s decision to create more open access in an area with a history of being difficult to police.

Since the shared border with Venezuela reopened in 2022, crime has increased. In a 2024 investigation, nonprofit think tank InSight Crime reported, “Criminal groups continue to thrive on illicit trade, and to offset a slight dip in revenue, have ramped up their extortion efforts, increasingly targeting local communities.”

Moreover, the conflict between terrorist groups worsened. “We recorded more than 660 clashes between armed groups in the first 30 months of Petro,” Breda said. This is a 40 percent increase from the previous administration.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies noted Petro’s peace and security policies have backfired, fueling the expansion of criminal organizations.

War and Peace

The fighting between cartels may soon pivot and resume its focus on fighting the state, according to analysts.

Reports of an escalation between Colombia’s military and the ELN have challenged Petro’s “total peace” agreement with terrorist groups after the ELN threatened Colombia’s government with “total war.”

In a March 9 interview with AFP, two ELN members who called themselves “Ricardo” and “Silvana Guerrero” said they were more than willing to resume fighting the state.

“If more troops continue to arrive in the territory [Catatumbo], the confrontation will most likely continue because we will defend ourselves,” Ricardo stated.

It’s a scenario analysts say was inevitable upon the reopening of the border with Venezuela.

“To me, Petro’s policies and approach to security were the big problem, followed by opening the border with Venezuela,” Evan Ellis, a research professor for the U.S. Army War College, told The Epoch Times.

Colombia's President Gustavo Petro addresses the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly at United Nations headquarters, on Sept. 24, 2024. Seth Wenig/AP Photo

Ellis said, “You basically had the two neighbors [Colombia and Venezuela], both with criminal situations getting out of hand, then those two criminal economies were able to integrate their flows and collaboration.”

He said the real tragedy is that Colombia is losing all the progress it made with institutional corruption and narcotrafficking since the days of former President Ernesto Samper during the 1990s.

“Colombia was on a fairly decent track but is now back to where it was under Samper,” Ellis said.

During the Samper era, Ellis said U.S. intelligence officials believed the FARC would seize control of the entire country due to its widespread influence inside the government.

Samper’s administration was rocked by scandal in the mid-1990s after allegations emerged that the former Colombian head of state took payment from a drug cartel. The claim resulted in the cancellation of Samper’s U.S. visa.

According to Ellis, Colombia has found itself back in the same boat under Petro.

“What I would argue is that with all that progress [since Samper], we are back to that point where you have rampant corruption. You have capable and noble armed forces hampered by policy chaos spreading across the country,” Ellis said.

He added that while Colombia’s terrorist and drug cartel problem is complex, it’s the direct result of failed government policies to control the situation.

Ellis said the coca subsidy program, which encouraged the removal of the plant as a cash crop, is a good example. Since there were incentives to get more money based on the volume of coca crops eradicated, production actually “ratcheted up” across the country, according to Ellis.

The United Nations (UN) reported an estimated 53 percent increase in potential cocaine production in 2023. Coca is the critical ingredient for manufacturing cocaine.

Forced Recruitment

Despite local reports of decreased violence throughout the country last year, Breda said part of this is because of a flawed metric. He noted an increase in violence against civilians in departments like Antioquia in spite of the downward national trend observed in 2024.

“It was driven by a decrease in confrontations between state forces and armed [terrorist] troops,” Breda said regarding the alleged improvement in violent crime.

He also said it didn’t mark an actual improvement in some areas since the trend was only noted after a massive spike in violent crime happened in 2022.

Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas guard the location of talks between Manuel Marulanda, Marxist rebel chief of the FARC, and then-Colombian President Andres Pastrana, in February 2001. Luis Acosta/AFP via Getty Images

“Human rights leaders had to leave the area due to threats from the armed groups,” Diego Andrés García of the UN refugee agency said in a statement.

“During their departure, there were massacres, targeted killings of leaders and family members being murdered.”

The same agency also observed videos on social media showcasing how these conflicts between terrorist groups have impacted civilians. Some of the clips reportedly include gunfights, people fleeing for their lives, and teachers evacuating schools.

Authorities also reported a surge in crime cartel-forced recruitment in 2024. Many of these forced civilian recruits were minors.

In the first half of 2024 alone, there were 159 registered cases of forced minor recruitment into illegal armed groups.

“There is an increase in the forced recruitment of children and adolescents. ... This is an under registry because there are many situations to consider that prevent us from having reliable information,” Lourdes Castro, presidential counselor on human rights and international humanitarian law, said at a press conference.

Breda agrees with this assessment. “It’s a phenomenon that’s really hard to track down, and it’s very underreported. Forced recruitment is a natural expansion of the workforce [of cartels],” he said, “They need more manpower both to handle their territories and to fight off rival groups.”

Ellis added the lack of prosecution of gang leadership in Colombia is “getting out of control” and contributing to the problem of forced recruitment.

“Kids that get swept up in these nets end up becoming part of these organizations,” he said.

Prison overcrowding in Colombia is also believed to be contributing to a vicious feedback loop of crime while providing fertile ground for cartel recruitment.

Ellis said splinter factions of different gangs in prison could end up working together while stuck in close quarters. One notorious Venezuelan cartel got started this way.

“It’s how you got Tren de Aragua. It started out as a prison gang,” Ellis said.

Prison crowding has been an issue in Colombia for years. Last year, Antioquia officials claimed there was “no room for one more” inmate in the department’s penitentiary system.