Climate Change Department Admits Difficulty in Measuring Emissions Impact

Climate change protestors are seen marching and changing as they carry placards in Melbourne, Australia, on Nov. 6, 2021. Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images

Australia’s Climate Change Department has admitted difficulty attributing the effect of carbon emission reduction from Australia to specific changes in the global climate.

During a budget estimate hearing on May 28, representatives from the Climate Change Department were questioned about whether it could demonstrate the quantifiable effects of the policies it implemented to reduce carbon emissions.

Queensland Senator Malcolm Roberts cited a recent Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) report indicating that the Department was “unable to demonstrate the extent to which specific Australian government policies and programs have contributed or are expected to contribute to overall emissions reduction.”

The ANAO also said the Department’s monitoring of climate and energy-related work progress did not indicate the contribution of measures towards emissions reduction targets.

In response, Kath Rowley, the head of the emissions reduction division, said her Department had “a range of ways” to track progress towards emissions reduction targets and quantify the impact of its most important emissions reduction policies and measures.

“We track both progress to date in our National Inventory Report, which is published every year and reports on Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions from all sources across the economy. And that’s a backwards look,” she said.

“And our emissions projections are based on a range of assumptions looking forward.”

However, Mr. Roberts was not satisfied with Ms. Rowley’s answer and wanted to know the specific impacts of the reduction in carbon emission projected by the Department.

“Do we see any difference in temperature? Do we see any difference in rainfall, snowfall, severe storm severity … droughts, floods, and sea levels? What are the specific impacts?” he asked.

Ms. Rowley said the global climate and the impacts of climate change were “a function of Australia and all other countries’ greenhouse gas emissions.”

She also noted that key reports referred to by the Department, as well as those produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), looked at “the cumulative effect of global greenhouse gas emissions.”

Difficulty Measuring Specific Impacts of Carbon Emission Reduction on Global Climate

However, Ms. Rowley said it was challenging to figure out how a change in carbon emission from Australia would specifically affect the global climate.

“It is rather more difficult to attribute a single change in the tonnes of emissions from Australia to specific changes in the global climate, not least because it is a cumulative effect,” she said.

“But, it is also very important to note that the cumulative effect of climate change is reflective of global greenhouse gas emissions.

“And with the reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions, the projected impacts, and over time, the observed impacts of climate change will be less, and Australia is contributing to that as part of the global action on climate change.”

Ms. Rowley’s reply prompted Mr. Roberts to assert that the Department had no specific way to measure the impact of its policies.

“It sounds like the ANAO was right. You cannot measure the impact of what you’re doing,” he said.

The Queensland senator then claimed that no one so far had been able to determine the specific effects of carbon dioxide from human activity on climate sectors such as air temperature, tropospheric temperature, and stratospheric temperature.

“No one anywhere in the world has provided the specific quantified effect of carbon dioxide from human activity on any temperature for any climate fact. No one ever,” he said.