BAGHDAD–A political bloc led by populist Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, a long-time adversary of the United States who also opposes Iranian influence in Iraq, has won the country’s parliamentary election, the electoral commission said on Saturday.
Sadr himself cannot become prime minister because he did not run in the election, though his bloc’s victory, puts him in a position to have a strong say in negotiations. His Sairoon electoral list captured 54 parliamentary seats.
The Victory Alliance, headed by incumbent Shi’ite leader Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, trailed in third place with 42 seats, behind the Al-Fatih bloc, which won 47 seats.
Abadi created the Victory Alliance in December 2017 to run against former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and the Shia Islamic Dawa Party. Al-Fatih is led by Shi’ite leader Hadi al-Amiri, who has close ties with Iran and heads an umbrella group of paramilitaries that played a key role in defeating ISIS.
The results were announced a week after Iraqis voted in a nationwide election, which produced surprising results amid a historically low turnout.
The nationalist cleric’s success could be a setback for Iran, which has steadily increased its influence in Iraq – its most important ally in the Middle East – since a U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein and his Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in 2003.
Sadr was able to capitalize on growing resentment amongst the poor towards Tehran-backed governments who did not improve basic services and build hospitals and schools in a country devastated by the war against ISIS and by sectarian bloodshed.
He also reached out to dispossessed Shi’ites and marginalized Sunnis, and restored links with Sunni neighbors.
In an alliance with Iraq’s secularists and Communist Party, observers say the election win has been a remarkable comeback for Sadr. For years, he had been sidelined by Iranian-backed rivals and was regarded by U.S. and Iraqi officials as an unpredictable maverick.
He derives much of his authority from his family. Sadr is the son of the revered Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr, killed for defying the secular rule of Saddam Hussein.
In his Baghdad stronghold of Sadr city, where posters of his father could be seen, people expressed concerns that Sadr would be outmaneuvered in what are expected to be long, tough talks on forming a government.
“New lists and candidates have won. But they are unable to form a government because the previous politicians are foxes and I believe that they aim to form big alliances in order to isolate the new blocs,” said one resident, Muied Hatim.
In the 2010 election, Vice President Ayad Allawi’s group won the largest number of seats, albeit with a narrow margin, but he was prevented from becoming prime minister. He blamed Tehran, which maneuvered Nuri al-Maliki into power.
Winning the largest number of seats does not automatically guarantee that Sadr will be able to hand-pick a prime minister.
Parties will have to align themselves to try and form a bloc large enough for the parliamentary majority necessary to nominate a candidate. The government should be formed within 90 days of the official results.
“Your vote is an honour for us,” Sadr tweeted moments after the official results were announced in the early hours of Saturday. “We will not disappoint you.”
The election dealt a blow to Abadi, but he could still emerge as a compromise candidate palatable to all sides because he has managed the competing interests of the United States and Iran – unwitting allies in the war against ISIS – during his term in office.
Amiri is regarded as one of the most powerful figures in Iraq. He spent two decades fighting Saddam Hussein from Iran.
Before the election, Iran publicly stated it would not allow Sadr’s bloc to govern in Iraq, with which it shares a border.
Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of foreign operations for Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards and a highly influential figure in Iraq, has been holding talks with politicians in Baghdad to promote the formation of a new cabinet which would have Iran’s approval.
Last year, Sadr traveled to Iran’s regional arch-rival Saudi Arabia and met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Shi’ite Muslim Iran has been locked in a regional power struggle with Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia, which has been tentatively seeking to increase its involvement in Iraq.
Earlier on Saturday, Sadr met a group of ambassadors from neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia.
