Independent MPs in the Solomon Islands are demanding that Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele clarify the details of a $30 million (US$20 million) bailout provided by Beijing.
Mr. Manele referred to it as “budgetary support,” when he announced the agreement on July 17 but the MPs say Parliament hasn’t been told whether it’s a grant or a loan.
After talks with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping, the prime minister announced the funding, hailing Beijing’s “transformative” presence in one of the world’s poorest countries.
“With persistent budget deficits and rising public debt, fiscal discipline must be a priority for the ... government,” the Asian Development Bank said.
However, the Solomon Islands has recorded consecutive years of deficits and has faced significant economic and fiscal concerns: the pandemic, civil unrest in November, and the cost of hosting the 2023 Pacific Games.
“Cash reserves were significantly drawn down in 2023, and some invoices for the Pacific Games remained outstanding in the first quarter of 2024,” the bank notes, warning that “the government must focus on restoring fiscal discipline.”
That’s amid Australia’s $16.7 million contribution to the Games.
Mr. Manele may be reluctant to impose spending cuts required to balance the budget considering the rioting that occurred in November last year, which eventually forced the resignation of his predecessor, Manasseh Sogavare.
Fiscal Restraint Proving to Be a Challenge
Beijing’s $30 million offer would seem to provide the potential to restore economic stability without the risk of another outbreak of violence.Beijing has yet to acknowledge the existence of any deal or the payment of any money, and independent Parliamentarians—led by Peter Kenilorea Jr., who is also head of Transparency Solomon Islands—say they want the details.
He has consistently criticised the Solomons’ growing closeness with Beijing, dating back to the initial rapid pivot away from Taiwan under Mr. Sogavare.
“If it’s a loan, then we could go over our borrowing limit for Solomon Islands,” he said. “If it’s a grant, then I think that’s a shift in the way China does business because that’s not what they usually do.
“Solomon Islands’ budget is in bad shape, so it’s not surprising to see the government asking for this help. But we want to understand exactly what has been offered and accepted,” Mr. Kenilorea Jr. said.
In its dealings with other Pacific nations, Beijing typically offers loans at concessional rates of interest or funds projects that Chinese companies usually deliver.
In addition to the unexplained $30 million, Beijing has also agreed to fund extensions at the Solomon Islands’ only international airport, Mr. Manele said.
A larger airport would potentially boost tourist numbers and the country’s revenues; it’s becoming a popular destination, with international visitors up 255 percent to 26,030 in 2023 compared with 2022, providing stimulus for local businesses.
The Nation’s Economy Shows Signs of Recovery
The latest Asian Development Bank data shows inflation at 3.2 percent, expected to decline to 2.7 percent next year. After recording a negative 4.2 in 2022, GDP rebounded to 2.5 percent growth in 2023 and has eased only slightly to 2.2 percent this year.The ADB forecasts a similar rate of growth next year. Exports have performed well, with growth across the three major categories of logs and timbers, fish, and minerals.
However, government debt has increased significantly in 2023 to help finance the fiscal deficit. Total debt increased to 19.2 percent of GDP in 2023 from 14.5 percent in 2022.
Domestic debt increased by 46 percent, mainly through the sale of government development bonds to the National Provident Fund and state-owned enterprises, while external debt rose 32 percent.
Despite a massive increase between 2022 and 2025, public debt should remain below the 35 percent of GDP ceiling set by the government.
In 2018, the International Monetary Fund proposed that the Solomon Islands agree to a budget deficit limit of 1.5 percent of GDP, but that hasn’t progressed.
The ADB notes that “while the government aims to hold cash reserves sufficient to cover at least two months of spending it has proven a challenging target.”
