JOHANNESBURG—Death was raining from the sky on the terrified fighters from the M23 rebel group dug in on a hillside near the region of north Kivu in eastern Congo on a hazy November day in 2023.
Their commander couldn’t work out why, suddenly, the missiles were so unerringly accurate. In the past, many had landed short, or overshot, the trenches sheltering his men.
Now, however, he and other survivors spent their evenings collecting the bodies, and sometimes pieces, of fallen comrades.
And now, the Congolese army was using them to hover over the rebel positions, allowing it to establish coordinates with pinpoint precision and to program their missiles accordingly.
It is a scene being repeated across Africa.
China, Iran, and Turkey are battling for supremacy in African weapons markets, making cheaper drones that are being snapped up by governments eager to improve their defense capabilities.
But, as new research shows, hundreds of civilians are being killed in drone strikes, and analysts forecast many more will die as they expect jihadist organizations, rebels, and organized crime groups to also acquire unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
The Congolese Army’s CH-4B drones are medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicles that are capable of carrying a variety of weapons, including air-to-surface missiles and bombs.
“The CH-4-B is cheap, if you compare it to American Reaper drones, which each cost anything between $30 million and $64 million, depending on capabilities,” said Helmoed Heitman, an independent military analyst from South Africa.
Specialists at the militarydrones.org website say the CH-4B is “a mixed attack and reconnaissance system with provisions for 6 weapons and a payload of up to 250 kg to 345 kg.”
Several African countries have bought “significant numbers” of Chinese drones, including Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco, and Nigeria, said Darren Olivier, director of African Defence Review, an organization that analyses conflict on the continent.
He told The Epoch Times that drones have changed the nature of warfare in Africa.
“They’re getting cheaper all the time. You can now buy a Shahed drone from Iran for between $10,000 and $20,000,” Olivier said.
“Soon I suspect most armed groups will have some sort of drone, from your smallest rebel outfit to your more organized terrorist groups like al-Shabaab (in Somalia). Organized crime groups will buy them.
At the time Kinshasa acquired its first consignment of drones, militarydrones.org wrote: “While the acquisition of Chinese CH-4 drones by the Congolese government represents a significant development in the fight against the M23 rebels, it is important to consider the potential implications of employing such technology.
“The use of armed drones raises concerns about civilian casualties, adherence to international humanitarian law, and the potential for human rights abuses.”
But, as Olivier put it, “the genie is out of the bottle.”
With falling prices and vendors who ask no questions, drones are increasingly being used by African government forces and armed groups in multiple theaters of war across the world’s most conflict-ridden continent.
A new report confirms the current state of play, saying that drones are now killing hundreds of civilians each year in Africa.
But with the trend still in its infancy, little heed paid to regulations, and with even lower predicted price points opening the door to minor armed groups, the situation is set to worsen in coming years, according to analysts.
About 500 of these deaths occurred in one country, Ethiopia, where the report said state forces fighting rebels from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front launched 26 drone strikes on refugee camps and marketplaces.
Other African countries where the use of drones has been particularly deadly include Burkina Faso, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, and Sudan.
In Sudan, both sides locked in conflict—the country’s military and the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group—are using drones, with strikes hitting civilian infrastructure, including residential areas and markets.
The Nigerian government is employing drones to combat the Boko Haram insurgent group, but strikes have also hit civilians.
In December 2023, according to Drone Wars UK, a strike in Tudun Biri village hit a crowd of Muslims celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad, killing 85 people.
The state blamed the incident on “incorrect analysis.”
Zinurine Alghali, a coordinator of peace and security issues for the African Union, told The Epoch Times the continental body is “very worried about the growing influx of drones and related technology” into the continent.
“We are aware of many countries buying these weapons and explaining their purchases as necessary to crush rebellions and other security threats,” he said.
“But we’ve seen in countries like Mali and Sudan that often what happens is that drone strikes cause mass casualties in civilian areas.
“We are concerned that drones are being used to commit human rights violations.”
Heitman, a former officer in the South African Defense Force, described the report as “disturbing in the extreme.”
He said: “What concerns me is that the research focuses on only six of 54 countries. I know that many African countries are keeping their use of drones secret.
“So the deaths you read about in this report probably represent a vast undercount of the real figures attributable to drone attacks in Africa.
“The high numbers of civilian deaths also tell me that the drones aren’t being used properly, or they’re being used indiscriminately and without proper training.”
Heitman said most armed drones in Africa are imported from Turkey, China, and Iran, with the MALE versions being the most popular.
These include Iran’s Shahid models, currently used by Russian forces in Ukraine and by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels attacking traffic in the Red Sea.
“MALE drones are cheap and versatile,” said Heitman. “They stay airborne for many hours over very long distances; they have excellent surveillance and airstrike capabilities.”
Guy Martin, an analyst at DefenceWeb, a portal that monitors defense issues including weapons sales in Africa, told The Epoch Times: “China and Iran are making drones that cost as little as $10,000. They’re also not that concerned about how they’re going to be used.”
He said American-made drones are regarded as the best in the world, but their cost and the “self-imposed restrictions” on their use put them out of reach of all but the wealthiest of countries.
The U.S. subscribes to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), established in 1987 to prevent the proliferation of platforms capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction.
“Turkey, China, and Iran ignore the MTCR, which means their drones are not subject to the same export restrictions as American-made drones,” said Olivier.
“And that’s just fine with most African states, who want to buy drones with as little fuss as possible.”
Ankara and Beijing are the world’s leading producers of drones, also called unmanned aerial vehicles or unmanned aircraft systems.
In September 2024, U.S. security think tank the Center for New American Security (CNAS) released a report that noted: “The days of Israeli and American domination of the drone market are long gone.
“China, Turkey, and Iran have developed low-cost military drones and are willing to sell them to interested buyers.
“The United States’ self-imposed adherence to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) has given rise to competition from China and Turkey, limiting Washington’s ability to shape drone proliferation and employ drone diplomacy, narrowing one avenue of U.S. influence.”
The CNAS research confirmed that drone usage in Africa has increased dramatically since 2020.
Its analysis said the region had an average of two transfers of drone sales annually from 1995 to 2019.
However, from January 2020 to September 2023, the average increased to nearly 13 transfers a year.
CNAS said of the 84 recorded transfers to Africa identified in the dataset, 51 had occurred since 2020, a significant number of which were armed Bayraktar TB2 drones manufactured by the arms company Baykar in Turkey.
The company is owned by the family of Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s son-in-law, Selcuk Bayraktar.
“The Turkish drones are certainly the most sought after in Africa,” said Olivier.
He added that African governments remain “dead set” on acquiring Bayraktar drones, which cost between $2 million and $5 million depending on capabilities.
“The Bayraktar TB2 costs about a quarter of the price of other military-grade drones. So it’s pretty affordable even for countries with small defense budgets,” said Olivier.
According to the CNAS report, African countries that now possess significant numbers of Turkish drones are Angola, Burkina Faso, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, Togo, and Tunisia.
Olivier said that Turkish drone technology gained a following in Africa during the Libyan civil war (2014–2020).
Turkey supported the internationally recognized Government of National Accord, to which it provided drones, including Bayraktar TB2s.
“The devastation that these weapons wreaked, destroying an air base controlled by Russian mercenaries, for example, beamed across Africa on social media, and suddenly everyone wanted a Turkish drone,” Olivier said.
“Ukraine’s use of these drones against Russia has also cemented their reputation.”
Martin said in their growing use of drones African forces are “simply mimicking” what militaries and armed groups elsewhere realized a long time ago.
“Drones can be acquired relatively cheaply from countries that don’t ask a lot of questions,” he said.
“Why deploy an army of people you have to pay and worry about when you can just send in swarms of drones? Why train specialized units when drones can do the job? Who cares if things go wrong sometimes? Civilian lives are cheap, and they’re even cheaper in Africa.”
Heitman is convinced the use of drones in Africa is in its infancy.
“These weapons are getting cheaper and cheaper, so soon we’re going to hear of even relatively minor armed groups using them, even jihadists, and that’s when many more civilians are going to be victims,” he said.
“Africa isn’t Europe; in Africa, there’s little control and scant heed to regulations, even when they’re there.”
As the Military Africa website noted in January: “Setting up production in Morocco means existing African customers can receive drone deliveries more swiftly, reducing transition times. The proximity of the manufacturing facility could also attract new clients, as Baykar will be geographically closer than many of its competitors.”
