The government should improve resources to increase housing supply warning current estimates may be severely inaccurate, according to the University of Newcastle’s Institute for Regional Futures (UNIRF) Director Amanda Wetzel on Oct. 9.
“Firstly, housing markets do not follow council boundaries. Markets need to reflect buyer and renter behaviours based on their social connections, work, and services,” Ms. Wetzel said.
She said housing needs based on population projections are only “forward-focused” and do not reflect demand.
“Population projections do not account for pre-existing undersupply, manifesting as changing household patterns, homelessness, and overcrowding,” she said.
“By their very nature, projections also fluctuate dramatically from one period to the next based on economic and social conditions.”
Further, zoning land does not deliver housing to the market. Projections consider existing zoned land, which includes “housing quality” assumptions.
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“Without forward funding and infrastructure planning, housing will not be built,” she said.
She added estimations led to zoned land to supply housing for the next 60 years. However, a notable proportion lies dormant.
“A key reason is the need for more enabling infrastructure to deliver the housing required,” she said.
“Policy innovation is needed to ensure housing supply is fit for demand and capable of delivery.”
She called for a broad evidence base, redefined housing markets, accountability for undersupply, and planned and funded zoned land infrastructure after a UNIRF analysis found that projected housing supply in Australia’s cities and regions needs to catch up to demand.
Nearly 1 Million Homes Needed in NSW
Between 119,400 and 138,550 new homes could be built over the next five years, according to the New South Wales (NSW) government, aligning with demand, although it is lower than in previous years.The government added that COVID-19 was an unprecedented disruptive force, but Sydney and NSW’s population is growing again.
“This means demand for housing will also continue to grow, and we need to plan for the homes demanded by a growing and aging population.”
Specifically, NSW would need to house an additional 85,000 people annually for the next 20 years, totalling 904,000 homes or 45,200 per year. The government said the population will reach 3.7 million in regional NSW and 6.1 million in Greater Sydney before 2041.
Residential development, future developments, planning proposals, state and local government information, and economic factors shape the outlook for housing demand, according to the Department of Planning and Environment.
Therefore, the NSW Government announced it would allocate $2.2 billion to address the state’s housing supply and affordability on Sept. 19.
State Treasurer Daniel Mookhey said $1.9 million (US$1.2 million) would target long-term infrastructure, such as roads, parks, hospitals, and schools, adding they were just as critical.
“If we don’t build the streets, no one will build the homes,” Mr. Mookhey said.
Further, $300 million would go towards Landcom to accelerate the construction of thousands of new homes, including 30 percent affordable housing (1,500). In addition, the government would reinvest Landcom’s dividends to deliver “thousands more.”
Mr. Mookhey said, “NSW is amid a fierce housing crisis.”
“It’s the start of what we intend for Landcom. We want to be imaginative. It is a jewel that wasn’t privatised.”
The government said housing affordability and availability are NSW residents’ “biggest single pressure,” with mortgage payments or rent the most significant expense.
However, the government recognised that building more homes involves timely and efficient planning assessments. Therefore, implementing a faster planning program, including assessing housing supply opportunities, is necessary.
Most Vulnerable NSW Families Are Still Waiting
However, the NSW government offered limited new social housing supply, according to the NSW Peak Community Housing Body on Sept. 19.Mark Degotardi, Community Housing Industry Association (CHIA) NSW CEO, said the state government missed a “golden opportunity” to rebuild NSW’s broken housing system “right when families in NSW need it most.”
“There is no money in this budget to help build more social housing despite the state’s social housing waitlist standing at 56,000 households, the largest in the country,” Mr. Degotardi said.
“The only commitment to build more affordable housing was through reinvestment in Landcom. This initiative is welcome but will only deliver around 1,400 homes by 2039-40,” he said.
“That is roughly 80 affordable homes a year at a time when the unmet housing need in NSW stands at over 220,000 homes. It is a drop in the ocean—it wouldn’t even meet the statewide demand.”
Meanwhile, the Federal Government invested in boosting housing supply through the Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) and the Social Housing Accelerator Fund.
Housing and Homelessness Minister Julie Collins said the HAFF would include 4,000 homes for domestic violence-impacted women and children or older women at risk of homelessness.
However, Mr. Degotardi said the housing crisis scale meant the Federal Government alone “cannot solve” this housing emergency, calling for the NSW Government to respond with a significant and long-term plan.
“It is not too late for the NSW Government to confront this crisis head-on. We call on the government to work with the not-for-profit community housing industry on a long-term plan to give NSW’s most vulnerable families a safe and affordable place to call home.”
