China Remains a Focus of Concern for Quad Officials: Experts

(L to R) India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken take part in a press conference after the QUAD Ministerial Meeting at the Iikura Guest House in Tokyo, on July 29, 2024. (Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP via Getty Images)

Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Sunday accused China of “unjustified, illegal and reckless” behavior after Chinese planes flew dangerously close to a Philippine air force plane earlier this month. The encounter came almost two weeks after the Quad nations—the United States, Japan, Australia, and India—expressed concern about “coercive and intimidating maneuvers in the South China Sea.”

In Tokyo on July 29 for their annual meeting, the foreign ministers of the Quad nations—Quad is short for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—discussed a wide range of issues. However, based on officials’ messaging, their central focus was on China, experts told The Epoch Times.

The Epoch Times spoke with China experts from Japan, India, and the United States about the annual event. They agreed that the China centrality of the meeting stemmed from Quad’s fundamental objective, which is to contest Chinese domination in the Indo-Pacific.

Grant Newsham, a retired U.S. Marine colonel, is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and Japan Forum for Strategic Studies. Quad represents a political group and “generally shared principles” that are in place as a counterweight to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), he told The Epoch Times.

“Maybe the highlight is that the meeting was held and the four nations expressed their agreement and commitment to contesting Chinese domination—even if they didn’t directly mention the PRC,” said Newsham, author of the book, “When China Attacks: A Warning to America,” released last year.

In a joint statement released immediately after the meeting, the Quad nations said that they reaffirm its steadfast commitment—which they described as “inclusive and resilient”—to a “free and open” Indo-Pacific.

The Quad nations “are united in our commitment to upholding the free and open rules-based international order, with its strong support for the principle of freedom, human rights, rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty and territorial integrity, and peaceful settlement of disputes and prohibition on the threat or use of force in accordance with the UN Charter,” said the statement.

Newsham said that Quad’s intention of promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific means protecting the interests of the “major democracies” as they aim to fend off Chinese communist domination.

In its statement, the Quad nations said that the maintenance of “peace, safety, security and stability in the maritime domain underpin the development and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific.”

Kamlesh K. Agnihotri is a China watcher and senior fellow at the New Delhi-based National Maritime Foundation. He said the joint statement omitted a direct mention of Taiwan and the security issues related to it, but by talking about “maritime safety” it indirectly covered the safety of navigation through the Taiwan strait.

“By extension, it can also cover the unimpeded commercial energy and commodity flow through the Taiwan Strait,” he said.

Mumin Chen is a political science professor at Taiwan’s Chung Hsing University. He is a South Asia expert and author of several books on topics relating to India, South Asia, and international relations.

Chen explained that Quad, which began in 2004, was very low-key until 2017, when the Biden administration elevated it to a leader-level summit, increasing its scope as a counterbalance to China’s increasing footprint in the Indo-pacific region. According to a White House statement released at the time, the United States envisioned Quad as a “premier platform” to shape emerging regional order in a way that is favorable to the interests of the United States and its partners.

“This Quad Foreign Minister’s meeting is a positive move. At least we know all Quad members will move forward,” Chen said. Quad’s “commitment and promise to peace” in the Taiwan strait will be in Taiwan’s interest, he said.

Weaponization of Coast Guard Vessels

Agnihotri told The Epoch Times that the mention of “openness, freedom, inclusivity and security of Indo-Pacific” in the meeting is an indirect dig at Chinese leaders, whose unilateral efforts to change the status quo in South China Sea have put the Indo-Pacific region at a greater risk.

“The dubious role of coast guard and maritime militia has been clearly highlighted. Furthermore, the reference to ‘militarization of various features’ in South China Sea hints at no one else except China. The call for nations to abide by the 2016 Arbitral ruling is directed at China,” he said.

The joint statement of the Quad meeting, while expressing concerns about “intimidating maneuvers in the South China Sea” also highlighted what the experts called the weaponization of coast guard vessels in the Indo-Pacific.

“We also express our serious concern about the dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels, the increasing use of various kinds of dangerous maneuvers, and efforts to disrupt other countries’ offshore resource exploitation activities,” said the joint statement.

Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow with the Washington-based Hudson Institute, told The Epoch Times that coast guard vessels are meant to maintain order in the seas. They are paramilitary, not military forces. However, China has weaponized its coast guard in the Indo-Pacific, Nagao said.

“Originally the coast guard should be a police force to maintain law and order. But in the case of China—China uses [its] coast guard to create conflict. This is a dangerous use of coast guards,” he said.

Nagao termed the weaponization of coastguards and the use of militia China’s “grey zone tactics” in the region.

“For example, China sent [armed fishing vessels] to sea around the Philippines and made conflicts with the Philippine’s fishery and police force. [Then] China exploited this situation to deploy the Chinese Coast Guard to ’save‘ Chinese fishery seemingly under the ’threat’ of the Philippines and used this to push the Philippines out of the area to expand its territories,” he said.

State of Affairs at ASEAN

The joint statement also said that Quad supports “effective regional institutions” in the Indo-Pacific region and “reaffirmed its unwavering support” for the unity and centrality of ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and ASEAN-led regional efforts.

ASEAN is a political and economic union of 10 states in Southeast Asia, focused on ensuring wider regional interests, which may or may not align with China. ASEAN’s members are divided over how to respond to China, and how to address the ongoing civil war in Burma (also known as Myanmar).

This situation is complicated by the ASEAN’s voting process: Within ASEAN, decisions are made by total consensus and not by a majority vote.

The divide was illustrated last month when U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (on his way to the Quad meeting in Tokyo) attended the ASEAN summit in Vientiane, the capital of Laos.

At the ASEAN summit, Blinken raised concerns about China’s “destabilizing actions” in the South China Sea.  He then met with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the ASEAN meeting. Laos, where both meetings took place, is the current chair of ASEAN but is heavily indebted to China.

ASEAN is divided into multiple blocs with varying positions on territorial disputes and associated maritime zones, he said, while Cambodia and Laos are already heavily influenced by China.

Four ASEAN nations—Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei—have conflicts with China over the South China Sea. However, not all of them share the same level of concern, and according to National Maritime Foundation’s Agnihotri, this has posed threats to unity within ASEAN.

Agnihotri said of the Quad statement, “the unity and centrality of ASEAN is also referred to with an implied suggestion that only a united ASEAN can face up to various geopolitical challenges arising from the revisionist tendencies of China in the region.”

However, he said, “If a united ASEAN does not act as a central player with one stand on South China Sea disputes, then the Quad’s options to pursue a strong course of action against Chinese pro-activism on the basis of ASEAN centrality will [be] severely limited.”

Agnihotri said the Quad meeting also addressed the serious challenges in Burma. The joint statement mentioned its serious concerns about worsening political, security and humanitarian situation in the conflict-torn country, which shares a long northern border with China.

If Quad pushes ASEAN to take a decision on the persisting conflict in Burma—a security concern in the region, Agnihotri said, Burma will oppose it at ASEAN. Because of its consensus voting system, ASEAN will never be able to take any substantive decision that address Quad’s concerns in Burma.

A ‘Game in Peacetime’

Nagao told The Epoch Times that the concerns about Beijing at the recent Quad meeting are part of a peacetime scenario.

“The Quad vs China power game is the game in peacetime,” said the Tokyo-based expert. It’s a power game that drives geo-politics and the security calculus in regions such as Southeast Asia, he said.

“Showing presence and persuading small countries to join their side is the rule of the game. In this case, these smaller countries are checking which great powers are security providers for them. Thus, if Quad repels pirates, which is a threat to small countries, these small countries rely on Quad and join the group.”

Nagao, the author of several books, said providing security to small countries was initial impetus behind Quad and today, this has evolved to addressing proper maritime safety and tackling China’s expanding influence in the region.

“Quad was an idea that came [about] after the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004. At that time, all four navies dispatched naval ships to Indonesia to rescue and collaborate with each other,” he said, adding that India did so despite itself being impacted by the disaster.

“In 2007, in the Indian parliament, [assassinated] PM Shinzo Abe introduced the concept of Quad cooperation between the four countries as a strategic concept. Thus, HADR [Humanitarian, Assistance, Disaster, Relief] is the starting point of Quad. This time, Quad has agreed for rapid response of HADR jointly. And under increasing natural disasters, it will be important for Quad cooperation, both as a political symbol and as a security provider.”

July’s Quad statement called for maritime disputes to be resolved peacefully and in accordance with international law.

Nonetheless, the Japanese expert said, the peace of the region can easily disintegrate into conflict. He cited situations such as China’s construction of artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea. “China said these islands were not for military purposes,” he said. “But after they built [them], China started to deploy missiles and bombers. Thus, such activities are dangerous ’militarized' situations and can become a real war.”