CCP Learning Military Tactics, Strategy from Ukraine War: Senate Committee

Gunners from 43rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fire at Russian position with a 155 mm self-propelled howitzer 2C22 "Bohdana", in the Kharkiv region, amid the Russian invasion in Ukraine, on April 21, 2024. Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been taking lessons on military aggression and dealing with foreign leaders from the Ukraine War, an Australian Senate Committee has heard.

“The Chinese are very good at learning from other people’s wars,” said Mick Ryan, retired major general of the Australian Army, on Aug. 5.

“They started watching during the Falklands War. They learned a lot during the 1991 Gulf War. In fact, their entire reform [and opening up] program they’re currently undergoing is based on a lot of the lessons from 1991 they watched,” he told the Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs.

“The 2003 invasion of Iraq. They watched the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. They’ve watched these wars very closely. It’s been a test bed for weapons. It’s been a test bed for ideas. It’s been a test bed for policies … I think they have learned lessons about what to do with foreign leaders of countries that you invade.”

Major General Ryan also warned the CCP has learned from Ukraine that “this kind of aggression actually works.”

“They [the Chinese] think Russians have been successful, particularly the nuclear rapid current to prevent any further Western escalation… The Chinese will take from that. They can’t afford to have a Zelensky in Taiwan, and they’ve learned how brutally you can deal with the citizens of a country you invade without the international community doing anything.”

Major General Ryan was made a member of the Order of Australia (AM) for his leadership of Australia’s first reconstruction task force in Afghanistan.

10-20 Percent Chance of Conflict Before Next Decade

Meanwhile, the retired general warned there was a 10 to 20 percent chance of conflict before the end of the decade, a “terrifying prospect” because it would be “an order of magnitude worse than what we’re seeing in Ukraine.”

When Liberal Senator Claire Chandler, the deputy chair of the committee, asked him why it was important for Australia to support Ukraine, he pointed to the rise of the new “axis.”

“The Russia, China, Iran, North Korea axis has metastasised into a global threat against the sovereignty and prosperity of all democracies supporting Ukraine,” he said.

“These four countries are not joined by some organs like NATO Alliance. They’re joined by a common belief that the West is in decline and their time has come, so when one of them is successful somewhere, all four of them take heart from that.”

Ryan also warned that if Russia succeeded in Ukraine, it would send a message to “countries like China in our region” that they may be able to get away with similar actions.

Australia Not Providing Enough Support to Ukraine

Ryan, a graduate of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, and a senior fellow for Military Studies at the Lowy Institute, sees Australia’s current support for Ukraine as still not enough.

“I believe that Australia’s aid, like other countries, is enough to help Ukraine tread water, but not enough for them to defeat the Russians in Ukraine,” he told the Committee.

“Australia still only dedicates a very small percentage of GDP to supporting Ukraine. Thus far annualise, we spend about $500 million per year supporting Ukraine, which is about 0.024 percent of our GDP. Put it another way, for Ukraine per year, [it] equals less than 1 percent of the annual defense budget, or less than half of one week spending on defense.”

When asked why he believed Australia had not done enough, Mr. Ryan replied short and concisely: “The war is still going.”

“There’s a strategic imperative, clearly, as we’ve discussed, but there’s also a moral imperative,” he said.