Tropical Storm Rafael Forms in the Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center’s forecasted track of Tropical Storm Rafael on Nov. 4, 2024. (National Hurricane Center/National Weather Service).

A warning was issued for the middle and lower Florida Keys as Tropical Storm Rafael took shape in the Caribbean. The storm is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane within 48 hours.

Located 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 395 miles southeast of Grand Cayman at 4 p.m. (local) on Nov. 4, Rafael was found with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, and its tropical-storm-force winds (39 mph–73 mph) extended 105 miles out from its center.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) stated in its latest advisory that it expects tropical storm conditions to hit Jamaica later Monday night. Rafael will then pass near or over the Cayman Islands late on Nov. 5, delivering damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves.

Rafael is then predicted to approach Cuba on Nov. 6, intensifying to a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 97 mph.

NHC’s forecast advisory stated Rafael will be Category 1 when it enters the Gulf of Mexico in the early hours of Nov. 7, boasting maximum sustained winds of 92 mph.

However, its tropical storm-force winds could affect the Florida Keys and the southern peninsula.

Heavy rains with possible flooding and landslides are expected in portions of the Caribbean, including Jamaica and western Cuba, through mid-week, and heavy rainfall is forecasted for Florida and the southeast United States later in the week.

The latest forecast track has Rafael turning westward, with Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama within the furthest extent of the projected “cone of uncertainty.”

The NHC stated: “It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.”

A hurricane warning was issued for the Cayman Islands on Nov. 4, and later hurricane and tropical storm watches were issued for parts of western and southern Cuba.

The Cayman Islands government announced on Nov. 3 that all government schools and the University College of the Cayman Islands would be closed on Nov. 5 due to worsening weather conditions.

Jamaica is under a tropical storm warning.

NOAA predicted 17 to 24 named storms would form in the Atlantic—which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico—in 2024.

Tropical Storm Rafael becomes the 17th named storm, following Tropical Storm Patty’s formation in the North Atlantic just west of the Azores on Nov. 2.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30.