Majority of Canadians Back Suspension of Oil Exports to US but Concerned About Fairness to Alberta: Poll

Canadian and U.S. flags are seen flying near Parliament Hill in Ottawa on March 22, 2023. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

The majority of Canadians are in favour of halting oil exports to America in the face of U.S. tariffs, yet they also say it would be unfair for Alberta to absorb the economic fallout resulting from such a move, a new survey suggests.

Nearly 60 percent of Canadians polled by Innovative Research say banning Canadian oil exports to the United States would serve as an effective means of exerting pressure on the United States should President Donald Trump follow through on his threat of 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods.

But 52 percent say expecting Alberta to absorb the repercussions of such an oil export ban would be unfair, especially while Canada continues to export products that yield advantages for other provinces, such as hydroelectric power in Quebec and automotive parts in Ontario, the survey found.

The sentiment is shared by 71 percent of those polled in Alberta, 54 percent in Ontario, 52 percent in British Columbia, and 51 percent in the Prairies. Less than half of Atlantic Canada or Quebec residents agreed an export ban would be unfair, coming in at 47 percent and 42 percent respectively.

Trump originally threatened to slap a 25 percent tax on Canada’s products beginning Jan. 20, his first day in office. He has since said he is considering Feb. 1 as a start date for the tariffs against Canada and Mexico in response to the flow of illegal immigration and drugs into the United States.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has suggested Ottawa would retaliate with “dollar-for-dollar” matching tariffs against any U.S. tariffs levied against Canada.

Trudeau said all options are being considered to address U.S. tariffs, including the suspension of oil and gas exports across the border. Canada currently supplies 25 percent of the total oil consumed by the United States.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been equally vocal about her opposition to such an approach and did not sign a joint statement with Ottawa and other premiers on potential responses to Trump’s threat of 25 percent tariffs on Canada.

Smith has said the federal government’s unwillingness to eliminate energy export cuts from consideration in response to the anticipated U.S. tariffs violates provincial jurisdiction.

She is instead advocating for diplomacy rather than retaliation and insists a deal can be made that would benefit both countries.

Long-Term Pain?

The survey of 1,000 Canadians also found that most of those polled were concerned about the long-term implications of short-term actions.

Fifty-six percent of those polled said Canada should be careful not to take actions in the short run that could hurt its long-term relationship with the United States. Only 12 percent disagreed and 31 percent said they didn’t know or had no opinion either way.

Alberta residents expressed the most concern at 59 percent, closely followed by those living in Ontario and Prairies both at 58 percent, and Atlantic Canada at 56 percent. Fifty-three percent of B.C. residents and 50 percent of Quebecers also voiced concern.

A large number of respondents in every province didn’t voice any opinion on the matter, ranging from 17 percent in Atlantic Canada to 26 percent in Quebec.