According to the model, created using historical data and machine learning, by 2025 restaurant foods are expected to go up by 46 percent, meats by 45 percent, dairy by 41 percent, fruits by 29 percent, bakery goods by 35 percent, seafood by 24 percent, and vegetables by 8 percent.
In addition, “Year over year, prices for food purchased from stores rose to a lesser extent in March (+9.7%) than in February (+10.6%), with the slowdown stemming from lower prices for fresh fruit and vegetables.”
Charlebois, known as the “Food Professor,” cautioned that while Dalhousie University has been forecasting for 15 years, it has occasionally been incorrect. He said the university’s Canada Food Price Report has a historical accuracy rating of around 80 percent.
“Forecasting is not an easy thing to do, and we’ve never actually gone beyond 12 months because a lot of things can happen,” Charlebois said. “In December 2021, we released a price report and two months later Vladimir Putin actually had different plans that impacted global food prices everywhere.”
According to Charlebois, several Canadian provinces recently approached Dalhousie to ask the university to predict food prices for the next few years. He said the provinces have been struggling with their food budgets due to inflation, which has impacted their ability to provide support to hospitals, institutions, and schools.
Bank of Canada Prediction
Dalhousie University’s projections contradict those of Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.The governor said on April 18 that the central bank predicts food price inflation will “come down in the months ahead” and that overall inflation will fall to 3 percent by summer 2023, to 2.5 percent by the end of the year, and to its target of 2 percent by the end of 2024.
Charlebois, for his part, said the gap between Canada’s food inflation and overall inflation is at 4.6 percent and increasing, while the gap between the two figures is decreasing in the United States.
“That’s why I’m a little bit concerned, to be honest, because there’s a lot of elements in Canada that are actually pushing prices higher,” he said.
According to Charlebois, the federal government’s carbon taxes will continue to increase the cost to grow, process, and transport food.
“With the carbon tax at $170 a tonne by 2030, does it also mean that food processors will go to the United States where there is no carbon tax?” Charlebois asked.
In addition, all plastic packaging in Canada will need to contain at least 50 percent recycled content by 2030.
“It doesn’t matter what alternatives you use, plastics were useful because they are the cheapest of all options. And so when you’re replacing plastics, they will actually cost more to keep our food safe and fresh,” he said.
Charlebois said that if food continues getting more expensive, Canadians’ relationships with food will need to change.
“Canada had access to one of the cheapest food baskets in the world for a very long time, where we spent about 9 percent of our budget on food. But that percentage is likely going to go up,” he said.