Canada’s Fertility Rate Reaches All-Time Low

Fertility rates continue to decline in Canada, dropping to 1.26 children per woman in 2023, StatCan says.morrowlight/Shutterstock

Canada’s fertility rate hit a historic low in 2023, placing the country among the ranks of the “lowest-low” nations in the world.

The fertility rate in Canada has been on a consistent downward spiral over the past 15 years, falling to a new low in 2023 of 1.26 children per woman, according to newly released Statistics Canada data.

It’s the lowest since the government agency began tracking rates in 1921, falling below the previous record-low of 1.33 children per woman established in Canada last year.

There was an increase in the number of women of childbearing age in 2023, yet the number of births—351,477—was virtually unchanged compared to 2022, StatCan said, noting that fertility fell last year among women aged 15 to 44.

“A record-low was registered in 10 of the 13 provinces and territories, with the lowest fertility rate in British Columbia at 1.00 child per woman,” StatCan said.

StatCan describes the total fertility rate as the expected number of children a woman would bear during her reproductive lifetime, based on the fertility rates observed at each age within a particular calendar year.

The stagnant number of live births last year means Canada has now joined the group of “lowest-low” fertility countries such as South Korea, Spain, Italy, and Japan. All countries in the group have a fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman or less.

Canada is also far behind the United States which had a rate of 1.62 children per woman in 2023.

Preemies and Low Birth Weights

The rate of premature births in Canada last year was the highest it has been in half a century.

The rate of births occurring at less than 37 weeks of gestation has increased by more than a percentage point in the past 30 years, rising from 7.1 percent in 1993 to 8.3 percent in 2023.

“The rate in 2023 was higher than in any of the previous 50 years,” StatCan said. “Preterm infants are at an increased risk of illness, hospitalization, and death, with risks generally increasing with decreasing gestational age.”

Teenage motherhood has declined substantially in the past 30 years. The share of babies born to mothers who were 15 to 19 years of age has declined from 6 percent in 1993 to 1.3 percent in 2023, StatCan said.

While fewer teens are becoming moms, they are the most likely to have babies born with a low birth weight. The percentage of babies born weighing less than 5.5 pounds to teen moms increased from 6.7 percent in 1993 to 9.6 percent in 2023.

Delaying Parenthood

A January StatCan report said Canada is experiencing a fertility trend akin to a “pandemic rollercoaster,” with many families choosing to postpone childbirth, a pattern also observed in other countries.

“In Canada, among persons of childbearing age surveyed in spring 2021, 19 percent reported that because of the pandemic, they now wanted to have fewer children than previously planned or to have a child later than previously planned,” the report reads.

But the pandemic may not be the only reason for lower fertility rates. A report from the Macdonald-Laurier Institute found that the number of marriages and common-law partnerships are also on the decline in Canada.

The number of single, never-been-married adults has increased substantially since 2001 among those 45 and younger, and is becoming particularly common among those under the age of 30, the report found.

The number of adults who are either married or common-law has declined, falling from 64.1 percent in 2001 to 60.8 percent in 2021. The decline could not be attributed to either divorce or widowhood, the report found. Instead, it was driven by an increase in the number of adults who are remaining single.

As of 2021, more than half of young adults in the 25 to 29 age bracket were single and had never been married. The number of never-married adults has also risen from 17.2 percent to 23 percent for 35- to 39-year-olds, and from 12.9 percent to 18.5 percent for 40- to 44-year-olds.

The fertility rate is directly tied to the decline in marriage, the study suggests.

“Unsurprisingly, the total fertility rate for married women is much higher than for unmarried women, as most women prefer to have the security of a committed partner before having a family,” the report reads.

The increasing number of singles could have significant consequences both for Canada’s fertility rate and for the overall fiscal health of the country, the study says, noting that declining birth rates will ultimately affect both population growth and overall productivity.

“Governments have every reason to worry about the trends in family formation and fertility we have uncovered,” the report reads.

“Not only do marriage and childbearing very significantly benefit the individuals concerned, they also benefit society and the economy overall. There are good reasons therefore to look at policies that would promote families and that would try to ameliorate the negative trends we are observing.”