Electricity Output Needs to Double or Triple to Meet Canada’s Climate Goals, Says Report to Senate

Hydro Quebec employees work on power lines in Montreal, on April 7, 2023 Andrej Ivanov/AFP via Getty Images

Canada must double or triple its electricity output to meet its 2050 net-zero emission targets, says a report submitted to the Senate by Energy NL, which represents energy organizations in Newfoundland and Labrador. The submission says meeting the targets is “likely not possible” without more federal subsidies.

The report says to meet net-zero electrical system targets by 2035, Canada needs significantly more non-carbon electricity generation. And to meet 2050 overall net-zero emission targets, Canada needs to expand its current electrical generation capacity by two or three times.

“To achieve its goal of a net zero electricity sector by 2035 Canada will need 121 terawatt hours of new supply to replace carbon sources,” Energy NL wrote in the submission, as reported by Blacklock’s Reporter. It says this amount of electricity generation is equivalent to that of “four Churchill Falls.” The province’s Churchill Falls generation station is Canada’s second-largest hydroelectric plant, after the Robert-Bourassa generating station in northwestern Quebec.

“And, to meet net zero 2050 targets, Canada’s electricity generation capacity needs to grow by 2.2 to 3.4 times bigger than today,” said the submission.

Energy NL, representing over 460 member organizations in Newfoundland and Labrador’s energy sector, said that achieving the 2050 net-zero emissions objective won’t be possible without multi-faceted support from the government. This assistance should encompass financial, legislative, and policy support.

The federal government released on Aug. 10 a draft proposal of Clean Electricity Regulations (CER). The CER aims to achieve net-zero emissions by “electrifying” more sectors of the economy that rely on fossil fuels, including transportation, home and water heating, and industrial activities.

The proposal has ignited jurisdictional debates between Ottawa and the provincial governments of Alberta and Saskatchewan, particularly regarding the removal of natural gas from their energy grids, barring emergency conditions.

About 90 percent of Alberta’s electricity is generated from coal and coke (36 percent) and natural gas (54 percent), while only 10 percent is from renewables, such as wind, hydro, and biomass. The same goes for Saskatchewan, where 81 percent of the province’s electricity is produced from natural gas (40 percent) and coal and coke (41 percent). The remaining 19 percent is produced mainly from hydroelectricity (15 percent).

The CER also said that provinces heavily dependent on coal and natural gas will witness ratepayers shouldering an increase of up to 15 percent in their electricity bills. The Canadian Electricity Association has estimated utility refits would cost $350 billion at ratepayers’ expense. The Department of Environment also projected the expenses for replacing old facilities and increasing power production capacity will exceed $400 billion by 2050.

Provinces that rely more heavily on emitting technologies for electricity generation can expect higher incremental rate increases, as highlighted in a federal government Regulatory Impact Analysis Statement, reported Blacklock’s Reporter.

The analysis notes that it is expected that most of the expenses incurred by electric utilities would ultimately be passed on to consumers. This scenario might lead to lower-income households using a comparatively larger proportion of their overall income to cover these costs in comparison to higher-income households.

According to the analysis statement, by 2040, rate hikes would average $485 more per year in Nova Scotia, $154 in Alberta, $111 in Saskatchewan, and $55 in New Brunswick.

Isaac Teo contributed to this report.

Editor’s note: This article was updated on Aug. 20 to clarify source of generation as non-carbon sources.