Canada’s Average Home Price Fell by 12% in 2022, Says Real Estate Association

A sold sign is pictured outside a home in Vancouver on June 28, 2016. The Canadian Press/Jonathan Hayward

The average price of a house for sale in Canada fell by 12 percent in 2022, says the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), which also found that the number of home sales across the country fell by nearly 40 percent over the course of last year.

“In 2022, we saw one of the biggest single-year shifts on record in Canadian housing activity, from record highs last winter to just below the 10-year average to end the year,” said Jill Oudil, chair of the CREA, in a Jan. 16. news release.

Comparing real estate numbers from December 2021 to those in December 2022, CREA found that the actual—but not seasonally adjusted—number of house sale transactions in December 2022 came in at 39.1 percent lower than a near-record posted for that month in 2021.

It also said that the actual national average sale price posted a 12 percent year-over-year decline in December 2022.

“The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was $626,318 in December 2022, down 12% from the same month last year,” CREA said.

It added that the national average house price remains “heavily influenced” by sales in the Vancouver and Toronto markets, which are two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets.

“Excluding these two markets from the calculation cuts almost $118,000 from the national average price,” the association wrote.

CREA also says that the number of newly listed homes across the country dropped by just over 6 percent on a month-over-month basis in December 2022, which was led by declines in British Columbia and Quebec.

“It was among the lowest December new supply levels on record,” said CREA.

2023 Forecasts

The association also posted its 2023 housing price forecasts, which predict that this year will be “the start of a turnaround” rather than a market recovery.

“It will likely remain quite difficult for many first-time buyers to enter the housing market until mortgage rates are lower than they are today,” it said, adding that it expects around 496,000 properties to be sold this year—a number slightly lower than last year’s total.

CREA is also forecasting average national house prices to cool in 2023 by around six percent compared to last year, coming down to an average of around $663,000 per home.

“It’s important to note that based on the monthly data under the surface, that decline has already happened over the course in 2022,” it added.

Further, the number of house sales across Canada is expected to rise by just over 10 percent in 2023 to a total of about 547,000 units being sold nationwide.

“This would still be below the 2020 and 2021 figures,” CREA said. “The national average home price is forecast to recover by a moderate 3.5% from 2023 to 2024 to around $685,056, below 2022 but back on par with 2021.”