Canada to Become Only NATO Member Missing Defence Spending Target in 2024, US Ambassador Says

Washington’s ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, after giving the keynote address at a Canadian Club luncheon in Ottawa on Oct. 31, 2023. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Cohen says Canada may soon become the only NATO member failing to meet the minimum defence spending requirement of 2 percent.

“At the end of 2024, the way projections are looking, Canada will be the only country in NATO that is not spending at least 2 percent of its GDP on defence and does not have a plan to get there,” Mr. Cohen said in a May 26 interview with Global News. “Canada has moved within NATO from being a bit of an outlier to being the outlier in the entire alliance.”

His remarks come two days after a bipartisan group of 23 U.S. senators wrote a letter urging Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to meet Canada’s NATO spending obligations.

Under Canada’s new defence policy, the federal government estimates its defence spending will rise to 1.76 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 2029-30.

Mr. Trudeau, in a May 24 press conference in Halifax, said that Canada is “not done yet,” in reference to Ottawa’s purchase of new fighter jets and its investment in continental defence upgrades, which includes modernization of the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD).

“Our recent budget’s massive investments in Arctic safety and security, recognizing NATO’s western and northern flank in Canada’s Arctic, are all extremely well-received by the Americans and by allies around the world who want to see us continue to step up,” Mr. Trudeau said.

Mr. Cohen said the U.S. government does take account of Canada’s defence spending beyond reaching its NATO target, but Ottawa still needs to do more.

“We look at their responsiveness, in particular in continental defence, on the Arctic and on NORAD modernization. We look at what they are doing in Ukraine. We look at what they’ve done in their enhanced presence in Lithuania. We look at what they’re doing in the Indo-Pacific,” Mr. Cohen said.

“That does not mean that Canada is off the hook after the defence policy update. And I don’t think Canada thinks it should be off the hook.”

The 1.76 percent of GDP translates into nearly $8 billion in spending over the next five years, said Defence Minister Bill Blair, who outlined plans for the increase in funding for the Canadian Armed Forces in Canada’s recent defence policy update.

“We are very significantly increasing defence spending in Canada. In fact, our defence budget will go up 27 percent next year over this year,” Mr. Blair told reporters May 23.

“We know that Canada needs to invest in other capabilities that are not yet included in this year’s budget,” he said, adding that research is underway to set the biggest spending priorities.

“Particularly, for example, for submarines for our Navy, or for our military forces with integrated air and missile defence systems; we are doing that work now,” Mr. Blair said. “And when that work is completed, we see exactly what our requirements are, and what is available in the marketplace. We will then go back to seek the necessary approvals and funding to get those things done.”

Under Pressure

Canada has been under pressure for some time to spend the NATO minimum of 2 percent of its GDP on defence.

The recent letter from the bipartisan group of senators implores Canada to “have a plan to reach this benchmark as soon as possible.”

“As we approach the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., we are concerned and profoundly disappointed that Canada’s most recent projection indicated that it will not reach its 2 percent commitment this decade,” the letter reads.

“Canada will fail to meet its obligations to the alliance, to the detriment of all NATO allies and the free world, without immediate and meaningful action to increase defence spending.”

The letter was signed by 23 senators, including Republicans Mitt Romney, Ted Cruz, and Dan Sullivan, along with Democrats Jeanne Shaheen, Benjamin Cardin, Tammy Duckworth, Joe Manchin, and Tim Kaine.

The letter echoes concerns voiced by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in February, who said he was counting on Ottawa to make good on its spending commitment sooner rather than later.

“I expect Canada to deliver on the pledge to invest 2 percent of GDP on defence, because this is a promise we all made,” Mr. Stoltenberg told CTV on Feb. 20.

“Canada is a big economy, a member of the G7. Canada is the second largest country in the world with vast coastlines … so it really matters what Canada does.”

Mr. Stoltenberg added that all 18 allies are expected to spend 2 percent of GDP on defence in 2024 and those who are not “should have plans in place to be there as soon as possible.”

Canada currently spends just shy of 1.4 percent of its GDP on the military.

Canada recommitted to reaching the spending target at NATO’s annual meeting last summer in Lithuania, agreeing that 2 percent should be the base requirement for all 31 member countries by the end of 2024.