The Liberals’ grip on big-city voters will soon be tested when a byelection takes place in a Toronto riding the party has held since 1993.
Liberal candidate Leslie Church, a former chief of staff for Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, will fend off Conservative candidate Don Stewart, who works in the financial sector, in the June 24 Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection.
The byelection was called after Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett
announced she was stepping down last December. Ms. Bennett had held the riding since 1997.
Two days ahead of a cabinet shuffle last summer that cost her a ministerial post, Ms. Bennett
announced she would not seek re-election. She was replaced as minister of mental health and addictions by Ya'ara Saks, also a Toronto MP.
The Conservatives have polled way ahead of the Liberals in recent months nationwide, but areas like Toronto and Montreal have stayed red.
Modelling by polling firm Abacus Data shows the Liberals ahead in the Toronto–St. Paul’s riding, but with a much thinner margin than in past elections.
Abacus CEO David Coletto
said in a post on the X platform that if voters behave according to their polling, the Liberals would get 38 percent of the vote and the Conservatives 34 percent. The NDP would come third with 20 percent.
By
comparison, Ms. Bennett won the riding in 2021 with 49.2 percent of the vote, almost double that of her closest contender from the Conservative Party (25.3 percent).
In years prior she had an even larger share, with 54.3 percent of the vote in 2019 and 55.3 percent in 2015. The best result for the Conservatives in those contests was 27 percent, in 2015.
With a strong showing in the Liberal stronghold, the Tories could be sending a message to more hotly disputed ridings of the Greater Toronto Area ahead of the planned October 2025 general election.
Ms. Church, a lawyer who also worked as head of global communications for Google Canada, is campaigning on the Liberal record,
saying she has contributed to the development of the $10-a-day national child care program and to initiatives to build more affordable homes.
She has received support on the campaign trail in recent days from senior cabinet ministers, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who took part in a campaign event on May 30.
Ministers from the Toronto area also stumped for her,
including Ms. Church’s former boss Ms. Freeland, Defence Minister Bill Blair,
and Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations Gary Anandasangaree.
Ministers from outside the area have also posted on social media about plans to help knock on doors, including Housing Minister Sean Fraser, who
said as “a strong progressive voice, she’ll be an excellent advocate for her community.”
Conservative candidate Don Stewart, who works for the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization, also
received out-of-town support, with Tory House Leader Andrew Scheer helping him with door-to-door canvassing in early June.
Mr. Scheer
said in a social media post that residents of the riding are upset about the carbon tax, inflation, rising crime, and high mortgages.
“While speaking to the residents of Toronto — St. Paul’s, one thing is clear: after nine years of Justin Trudeau, they’re ready to restore common sense to our country,” Mr. Stewart
said in a post on X.
Mr. Stewart says he is a strong supporter of the Canadian Armed Forces, and he currently
serves as Honorary Lieutenant-Colonel of the reserve unit 2 Intelligence Company in Toronto.
Mr. Stewart and Ms. Church are joined in the race by NDP
candidate Amrit Parhar, a community organizer and
director of programs at non-profit Institute for Change Leaders.
