Talking about Taiwan in Australia is considered highly sensitive in some quarters for fear of offending the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership, a professor of Chinese studies said.
Mark Harrison, from the University of Tasmania, expressed this view after Taiwan’s top diplomat to Australia said Beijing will continue to coerce governments to toe more favourable policy lines towards the CCP.
This includes pressuring Lai Ching-te (William Lai), the newly-elected president of democratic Taiwan, which the communist regime views as its territory.
During an event hosted by the Griffith Asia Institute and the Australian Institute of International Affairs, Douglas Hsu, the head of Canberra’s Taipei Economic and Cultural Office (TECO), pointed to the actions of the CCP following the national elections in Taiwan where the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) retained the presidency.
Just two days after the presidential result, the small Pacific nation of Nauru announced it would officially switch ties from Taiwan to Beijing. Further, the CCP held another round of military exercises in the region.
“We expect the military coercion to continue,” Mr. Hsu told attendees in Brisbane on Jan. 19. “And of course, the disinformation operation in making Taiwanese society more divided is going to happen.”
The representative said that Beijing’s disinformation campaign during election campaigning was not entirely unsuccessful, saying it had caused a “mindset change among voters” that may have partly contributed to the election result.
While the DPP retained the presidency, it lost control of the legislature, the Legislative Yuan, with the main opposition Kuomintang increasing its share of seats. The 2024 election marks the first election where no party holds an absolute majority.
While unification with China was an overarching issue, the election result was also subject to similar trends impacting democracies around the world: rising cost of goods, high prices putting homes out of reach for younger voters, and wages struggling to keep up with inflation—all feeding into growing disillusionment with established parties.
Mr. Hsu said Beijing would likely try to capitalise on the situation, particularly in the lead-up to the new president’s inauguration.
“There’s only one purpose, and that is to pressure the newly elected government to compromise or yield.
Changing the Way We Talk About Taiwan
Meanwhile, Beijing’s ambassador to Australia has been quick to threaten the country against siding with Taiwan following the election result.In an opinion piece published by The Australian newspaper, Ambassador Xiao Qian warned that if Australia was “tied to the chariot of Taiwan’s separatist forces” the people would be “pushed over the edge of an abyss.”
“Any move that violates the one-China principle will undoubtedly undermine China-Australia relations,” he wrote, claiming Taiwan was Beijing’s “internal affair.”
However, historically, Taiwan became a self-governing entity in 1949 following the defeat of the Kuomintang during the Chinese Civil War and its decision to flee and set up government on the island. Since the 1990s, Taiwan has held full democratic elections for its Legislative Yuan and presidency.
The latest threat from Beijing comes amid an ongoing “thaw” between the communist leadership and the Australian government, with CCP officials re-engaging in high-level diplomatic talks with ministers, as well as lifting punitive restrictions on trade. The CCP has grappled in recent months with food shortages in the country.
Professor Harrison said the CCP’s attitude towards Taiwan—which has now extended to other countries—means Australia will face pressure to understand the Taiwan issue “the correct way” and that Beijing is likely becoming fearful of closer Australia-Taiwan ties.
“That’s an issue for us because our Taiwan policy has been very thin, and our policy systems are very risk-averse when it comes to Taiwan,” he revealed. “And that makes them vulnerable to that kind of discourse power.”
Public discussion on Taiwan’s independence—amid other topics such as the oppression of the Uyghurs and the spiritual practice of Falun Gong—has been frowned upon by certain sections of Australian society, including the higher education sector, which relies heavily on China for international students.
