Truth could become indistinguishable from lies in 2.5 years, cyberattacks could disable critical infrastructure in four years, billionaires could be running the world in 4.5 years, and vital natural resources could run short in eight years, according to a federal panel tasked with imagining 35 “plausible” catastrophes.
The list of threats was created by federal policy advisory body Policy Horizons Canada, which ranked the disasters by potential impact and timelines. Threats that made the top-10 ranking included ecosystem collapse, artificial intelligence run amok, health-care system collapse, a breakdown of democratic systems, overwhelmed emergency response, and widespread downward mobility.
The panel interviewed experts, reviewed the literature on the various scenarios, conversed with policy makers, held workshops with forecasters, and analyzed ongoing changes in society to arrive at its 35 “plausible” disruptions to Canadian society. The researchers then gathered input from “around 500 stakeholders, colleagues, and foresight experts across the Government of Canada and beyond” to divide the threats by likelihood, potential impact, time horizon, and interconnections between the various scenarios.
In the disruption considered most likely and most imminent, which the report said could hit Canada as early as late 2026, people would no longer be able to tell what’s true and what’s not due to the proliferation of artificial intelligence, in addition to dis- and mis-information.
Under this scenario, “more people may live in separate realities shaped by their personalized media and information ecosystems,” the report said. “These realities could become hotbeds of disinformation, be characterized by incompatible and competing narratives, and form the basis of fault lines in society. Research and the creation of scientific evidence could become increasingly difficult. Public decision making could be compromised as institutions struggle to effectively communicate key messaging on education, public health, research, and government information.”
However, the most damaging catastrophe, the panel said, is the potential outbreak of World War III, which could erupt as “tensions between the world’s powers escalate as new rivalries, alliances, and blocs emerge.”
“Diminishing trust, the assertion of values, acts of interference, the battle for technological superiority, and the fight over natural resources and supply chains propel great powers into a world war, forcing other countries to pick sides,” said the report.
The risk of billionaires running the world could become a reality as early as 2029, according to the report. Under this scenario, “billionaires could gain warfare capabilities and control over natural resources and strategic assets. Some might co-opt national foreign policy or take unilateral diplomatic or military action, destabilizing international relations. This may introduce new uncertainties for governance structures, as private individuals do not have the same decision-making constraints as diplomats, politicians, and military professionals.”
Another catastrophe scenario the report highlighted is the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapse. This scenario could become a reality as early as 2030, the panel concluded.
“Society could become fragile as many people may be unable to meet their basic needs, let alone higher-order needs like a sense of belonging, self-esteem, and self-actualization,” the report says. “With a heightened sense of insecurity over a lifetime, conflicts could become violent, and people could become more vulnerable to authoritarian and anti-establishment groups or leaders.”
The panel also listed several “underanticipated disruptions,” which it recommended decision-makers consider more carefully. Some of these scenarios include civil war in the United States, antibiotics no longer working, biodata becoming widely monetized, and property becoming uninsurable.
