A scientist at the Australian National University claims the next pandemic could be just around the corner and bird flu is a “likely candidate.”
The infectious disease physician made the comments on May 23, after the first Australian case of human bird flu H5N1 was announced and H7N3 was detected on a poultry farm in regional Victoria.
Associate Professor of Medicine Sanjaya Senanayake suggested a pandemic could be on the way soon and it will likely be bird flu.
“Unlike the early days of COVID, at least with H5N1, there are already human vaccines and antivirals.”
Dr. Senanayake said the detection of bird flu at an egg farm in Victoria is “not good news” and highlights the need for a new Australian Centre for Disease Control to be fully resourced.
“From a human health perspective, it is vital to terminate this H7N3 outbreak as soon as possible, otherwise more infections give the virus more opportunities to mutate,” he said.
“Infection from poultry to farmed pigs is of particular concern, as pigs can act as the perfect mixing pot of human and avian flu viruses, leading to a strain of flu that can then move between humans easily.”
Meanwhile, Kirby Institute head of biosecurity Professor Raina MacIntyre described the bird flu news as “concerning.”
She said, however, that Avian flu viruses do not transmit easily in humans because they are adapted for birds. However, she added they can mutate to become adapted to the human respiratory tract.
“That is what we fear,” she said.
Ms. MacIntyre said, “Fortunately,” we are “well prepared” for human vaccines and a vaccine could be made within six weeks.
“If a pandemic arises, once the genome sequence is known, an exact matched vaccine can be made in 6 weeks with mRNA technology and 4 months using the old egg-base methods,” she said.
“Australia is fortunate to have influenza vaccine and mRNA manufacturing capacity onshore, which many countries do not have. The regulatory process may take longer, but we can expect to have vaccines sooner than we did for COVID-19.”
Potential Candidate for ‘Next Pandemic’
Meanwhile, Monash University School of Medicine virologist Vinod Balasubramaniam said “several factors” make avian influenza a potential candidate for the “next pandemic.”These include a wide host range, high mutation rate, genetic reassortment, high mortality rates, and genetic reassortment.
Health Department Promotes Flu Vaccines
The Victorian Health Department encouraged uptake of the seasonal flu vaccine after the first Australian human case of bird flu was discovered in Victoria.A case of the H5N1 infection was reported in the state on May 22, following further testing of positive influenza samples that was undertaken to detect flu virus strains.
The child acquired the infection in India and was unwell in March 2024, before returning to Australia.
Despite the health department conducting contact tracing, no further cases of bird flu connected to the case have been reported at the time of writing.
The health department said transmission to humans is very rare, with only a small number of human cases of H5N1 reported globally.
Symptoms of H5N1 infection can include fever, cough, headache, aching muscles, and respiratory symptoms according to the department.
“Avian influenza is spread by close contact with an infected bird (dead or alive), e.g. handling infected birds, touching droppings or bedding, or killing/preparing infected poultry for cooking,” the department said in an advisory approved by the chief health officer, Clare Looker.
“You can’t catch avian influenza through eating fully cooked poultry or eggs, even in areas with an outbreak of avian influenza.”
