Australia’s Population Surpasses 27 Million as Growth Slows to 1.8 Percent

The nation’s total population now stands at 27.3 million, an increase of 484,000 people over the past year.

People cross a road near Pitt Street Mall in Sydney CBD, Australia on Dec. 24, 2024. Roni Bintang/Getty Images

In news likely to be welcomed by prospective home owners, new data reveals Australia’s population growth is slowing, with migration trends beginning to ease.

Australia’s population expanded by 1.8 percent in the year leading up to Sept. 30, 2024, with international migration remaining the primary driver of growth, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The country’s population has now reached 27.3 million, reflecting an overall increase of 484,000 people over the past year.

“There were 617,900 people arriving from overseas and 238,100 departures. This means that 379,800 people were added to our population from overseas migration for the year to 30 September 2024, continuing a downward trend in recent quarters,” ABS head of demography Beidar Cho.

Natural population growth, calculated as births minus deaths, added 104,200 people—a 3 percent decrease compared to the previous year.

During this period, there were 291,200 births recorded nationwide, while 187,000 deaths occurred.

Among the states, Western Australia experienced the most significant growth, expanding by 2.5 percent. Victoria followed closely with a 2.1 percent increase, while Queensland saw a rise of 2.0 percent. Conversely, Tasmania recorded the slowest population growth, with a minimal increase of just 0.3 percent.

Political Battle Over Migration Targets

Migration numbers have consistently sparked political controversy, with critics accusing the government of failing to manage migration effectively.

“New ABS data shows the federal government’s own migration intake target is set to be exceeded by 38 percent this financial year. The promises to rein in out-of-control intakes, which are driving Australia’s housing and cost-of-living crises, are completely worthless,” Morgan Begg, director of research at the Institute of Public Affairs.

Shadow Immigration Minister Dan Tehan has echoed concerns, arguing that the Labor government has consistently overshot migration forecasts.

“The increased immigration forecast is now at odds with the prime minister’s own commitment that his Labor government would deliver immigration of 260,000 this year.”

He further stated that a Coalition government would act to curb migration, immediately reducing permanent migration from 185,000 to 140,000 and scaling back the humanitarian intake from 20,000 to 13,750.

Rethinking Migration Norms

Amidst the political debate, experts are questioning what “normal” migration to Australia should look like.

Professor Alan Gamlen from the ANU Migration Hub highlighted the complexity of defining appropriate migration levels.

“Should we aim to return to pre-pandemic levels or set a new normal? Opinions differ widely,” he said.

While some argue that migration levels were excessive before the pandemic due to housing and infrastructure constraints, others warn that current levels remain too low, risking labour shortages and inflation.

Australia has seen reduced migration since the pandemic.

“The real debate isn’t when migration will return to ‘normal’ but what ‘normal’ should be,” Gamlen concluded.