Australia Should Not Limit Itself to 8 Nuclear Submarines: Labor MP

A photo taken on Nov. 20, 2009, shows the British Royal Navy's nuclear submarine, HMS Astute, en-route to Faslane, on the Firth of Cylde south-west Scotland. (Andy Buchanan/AFP FILES/AFP via Getty Images)

Former soldier and now-federal MP Luke Gosling says Australia should increase its nuclear-powered submarine fleet to 12 vessels, instead of stopping at the planned eight under the AUKUS deal.

The tri-nation AUKUS deal was unveiled in 2021 and will see the United States and the UK arm Australia with nuclear-powered submarines to counter Beijing’s military build-up in the region.

After two years of deliberation, the final plan, revealed in late 2023, would see the Royal Australian Navy first buy three to five U.S. Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s following congressional approval.

Five more new submarines will be acquired in conjunction with the UK, the SSN-AUKUS. SSN is the classification for nuclear-powered submarines.

The SSN-AUKUS is the successor to the UK’s current Astute-class submarine, and two vessels will be built and delivered by the UK in the 2030s. The remaining three will be built in South Australia in the 2040s, with the program to be completed by 2050.

“AUKUS should not end there,” wrote Labor MP Mr. Gosling, in a report for the Lowy Institute on June 24.

“After the Virginias enter service, it would make little industrial and strategic sense to have set up an entire Australian production line to build three boats over ten years. A future Australian government should seriously consider building SSNs continuously from the 2050s, possibly of an evolved design.”

The Northern Territory MP said maintaining a national submarine building capability would have long term benefits, particularly if any conflict broke out.

“How many should Australia acquire in total? A force of 12 [submarines], with six stationed on each coast, would give Australia a credible two-ocean submarine force,” Mr. Gosling said.

“Two deployable boats in each ocean could protect all the key northern chokepoints at any one time, doubling Australia’s patrol coverage. This difference could well be decisive in a battle for Australia.”

The current program is estimated to cost $368 billion (US$245 billion) and will also require the training of thousands of personnel to man and build the vessels.

The Labor MP’s comments follow that of retired submarine specialist Peter Briggs, who said the most challenging period of the project will be building the first submarine. Then once that is achieved, the latter vessels will come online faster.

“Construction of the first submarine will take longer and reduce to a steady state after three or four are built and the workforce has made its way up the learning curve and processes have been optimised,” he wrote in The Strategist.

“The building process is a production line—at any time, submarines will be in different states of completeness.”

Mr. Briggs said defence reviews have suggested 12 submarines was the optimal number for Australia’s vast coastline and territory.

“Successive reviews have affirmed the need for 12 submarines supported by a base on each coast providing specialised infrastructure, workshops and a submarine squadron staff,” he wrote.

“Added to the reality of our geography, a force able to deploy at least two submarines on each coast would require at least 12 SSNs to provide ongoing uncertainty (for an adversary) and, if needed, operational impact.”