Australia Closely Eyes Vanuatu’s Election, Eager for a More Pro-Western Parliament

Australia will be hoping for the return of former Vanuatu Prime Minister Ishmael Kalsakau, seen here speaking during a visit by French President Emmanuel Macron in Port Vila on July 27, 2023. LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images

The 52 seats in Vanuatu’s Parliament will be contested by 217 candidates in two days (Jan. 16), and the Albanese government will be watching the outcome closely, hoping that a more pro-Australian set of MPs emerges.

The date was moved back from Jan. 14 due to the Dec. 17 earthquake, which measured 7.3 and killed at least 14 people, injuring 265 others.

The snap election was triggered when the President dissolved Parliament, cutting off a no-confidence motion in the now-caretaker prime minister, Charlot Salwai.

For their part, residents of the Pacific island—called ni-Vanuatu—will be hoping their votes create a stable government in a nation that has had four prime ministers in the past three years and 20 since 2000.

With a short, three-day period during which campaigning is allowed, candidates are doing everything they can to gain the attention of electors, including driving convoys of cars and vans packed with supporters clad in party colours up and down the main roads of the capital, Port Vila.

Australia hopes the new Parliament will finally confirm a bilateral security agreement signed between the two countries in 2022.

It was the first of several secured in the region, including extensive treaties with Tuvalu and Nauru, a deal with Papua New Guinea that recently enabled it to have its own NRL team, and a major policing investment with the Solomon Islands.

Not Enough Consultation: Experts

In 2024, Australia followed this up by creating two new regional entities: a Pacific Response Group to coordinate military co-deployments, including in response to disasters, and the $400 million Pacific Policing Initiative.

But the Australia-Vanuatu deal never came into force. It caused considerable concern, with many Vanuatu MPs upset with then-Prime Minister Ishmael Kalsakau’s handling of the agreement.

Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Blake Johnson said the agreement was not widely enough consulted amongst politicians or the community.

“That was a reason for a vote against him as prime minister, in which he ended up losing the position, [though] not necessarily the biggest reason,” Johnson explained.

Senior Fellow in Asia-Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University, Graeme Smith, agreed it helped remove Kalsakau from office.

“It was part of the political upheaval. It did play a role,” he said.

After signing the agreement, Kalsakau lasted another nine months before enough MPs shifted allegiance to allow Sato Kilman a sixth stint as prime minister. But he was then replaced by Salwai in October 2023.

While neither Kilman or Salwai ratified the security agreement, Kalsakau has vowed to do so if his opposition bloc is returned to power.

“We will get the ratification through,” he said in December.

But Johnson said that would depend on the shape of the government after the election.

“His coalition will likely be made up of multiple small parties, each with their own agendas, and if he tries to rush too fast on security agreements with Australia, it can lead to one party getting up and moving to the other side in a motion of no confidence.”

Several parties want Vanuatu to stay out of the geopolitical battle between the United States and China, preferring the country become a non-aligned nation.

Johnson said he imagined that “people sitting back in Canberra would have fingers crossed hoping to see Kalsakau returned,” though he believed there were no bad outcomes for Australia.

“In comparison to maybe some of the other leaders across the Pacific, there’s no one [Australia] butts heads with as much,” he said.