Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan last week met his Russian counterpart in Moscow, where they discussed a range of issues, including the current state of relations between their two countries.
At the Jan. 21 meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was quick to stress their “fraternal ties,” describing Armenia as a “natural strategic partner and ally.”
He went on to acknowledge that the previous year was “not an easy one“ in terms of the countries’ ”bilateral relations.”
Recent months have seen Armenia, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, move ever deeper into the Western camp, at the expense of Moscow.
In the past year, Armenia has suspended participation in a Russia-led security bloc, intimated its hope of joining the European Union (EU), and signed a strategic partnership deal with Washington.
According to Cem Karadeli, a Turkish political analyst, Armenia—a nominal ally of Russia—appears to be incrementally removing itself from Moscow’s orbit.
“Armenia hasn’t broken relations with Russia all of a sudden,” Karadeli, a professor of international relations at Ufuk University in Ankara, Turkey, said.
He noted that Moscow still maintains a military presence in Armenia, including a sizeable base near the northwestern city of Gyumri.
“But [the Armenians] are definitely moving in the direction of trying to find alternative sources of international support,” Karadeli told The Epoch Times.
Shaky Alliance
Under Pashinyan, who became prime minister in 2018, Armenia has moved steadily closer to both Brussels and Washington, discomfiting Moscow.In February 2024, Pashinyan announced the suspension of his country’s relations with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a six-nation alliance led by Russia.
In past remarks, he attributed the move to the CSTO’s ostensible failure to protect Armenia from a 2023 military offensive by Azerbaijan, its longstanding foe in the region.
While Yerevan has frozen its participation in CSTO activities, it has yet to formally withdraw from the organization.
“This topic was not discussed,” the spokesman said, adding that it “has not so far signaled its intentions to leave this organization.”
Armenia signed the Collective Security Treaty—a precursor to the CSTO—in 1992. Along with Russia, other signatories included Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
According to Karadeli, Armenia has been a party to the treaty “since the breakup of the Soviet Union.”
“But it decided to leave because Russia did not come to its aid during the conflict with Azerbaijan,” he said. “There are politicians and important figures in Armenia and in the [Armenian] diaspora who believe the partnership with Russia isn’t in the country’s best interest.
“This transition away from the CSTO towards the United States and the EU stems from their desire to find another backer in the region.”
Bryza also attributed the move to Armenia’s “disappointment that Russia and the rest of the CSTO did not intervene on its behalf during the Second Karabakh War [with Azerbaijan], even though the CSTO had no obligation to do so given the war was conducted on the territory of Azerbaijan.”
According to Stanislav Pritchin, a Russian political analyst, Pashinyan has sought to “blame Russia for his own mistakes [i.e., Armenia’s defeat by Azerbaijan] in front of his domestic audience.”
Flirting With Brussels
Earlier this month, Yerevan appeared to take another step westward when it approved a bill paving the way for an eventual EU membership bid.Speaking to Cabinet members on Jan. 9, Pashinyan expressed support for the move.
He also warned against expectations of Armenia’s speedy EU accession, noting that such a decision would require approval in a public referendum.
Shortly afterward, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk warned that membership in the EU was “incompatible” with Armenia’s current affiliation with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
He said any prospective bid by Armenia to join the European bloc would force Yerevan to make a choice.
Officially formed in 2015, the EAEU is an economic union of five Eurasian states, including Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.
Under Pashinyan, Armenia’s relations with Brussels have become increasingly friendly.
According to the resolution, Armenia’s application for EU candidate status could “set the stage for a transformative phase in EU–Armenia relations.”
Geographically speaking, Armenia—a landlocked country in the South Caucasus region—sits outside of Europe and does not share borders with any of the EU’s 27 current members.
“The EU sees the Black Sea hinterland as a continuation of Europe,” Karadeli said. “They also tried to initiate talks with [the South Caucasus nation of] Georgia.
“I think we’ll see the same process with Armenia but I don’t think it will go anywhere. If the EU still relies on the Copenhagen criteria [determining whether a country is qualified to join], none of the Caucasus states are eligible for membership.
“But if the aim is simply to keep Russia on its toes—and distract it from Ukraine—maybe they’re achieving something there.”
According to Pritchin, who heads the Central Asia desk at Russia’s Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Pashinyan “is trying to show the West that Armenia can be its strategic ally.”
“But Russia is the biggest investor in Armenia and represents its main security guarantor,” Pritchin told The Epoch Times. “Russia also represents Armenia’s primary market for Russian goods. It will be dangerous for Pashinyan to cut relations with the EAEU and the Russian economic sphere because Armenia depends on these for its survival.”
Strategic Partnership
In addition to Brussels, Yerevan has also drawn increasingly closer to Washington. Armenia and the United States signed a strategic partnership deal on Jan. 14.Mirzoyan, Armenia’s foreign minister, visited the U.S. Capitol, where he and then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed the bilateral agreement.
According to the department, the deal establishes “new avenues” for cooperation in the economic, security, and defense fields.
On the same day the agreement was signed, CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov said Yerevan’s decision to sign the agreement was its “sovereign right.”
Karadeli said the partnership deal between the United States and Armenia “doesn’t sound very convincing.”
“It reminds me of the [recently signed] 100-year strategic partnership between the United Kingdom and Ukraine,” he said, noting that the deal between Washington and Yerevan “could be aimed at putting Russia in a state of alarm.”
“But I don’t think it will,” he said. “And I doubt it will be at the forefront of the Trump administration’s foreign policy agenda.”
Bryza, who sits on the board of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation, said he sees the partnership deal as “an extension of the pro-Western momentum created by Yerevan’s hope of potential EU membership in the future.”
“Taken together, these moves provide an opportunity for President Trump to put into action his self-designation as ‘peacemaker’ and help President Aliyev [of Azerbaijan] and Prime Minister Pashinyan finalize the peace treaty both leaders seek,” he told The Epoch Times.
Pritchin said that, in any event, maintaining relations with Armenia “on a strategic level” would remain a “top priority” for Moscow.
“Russia is trying not to focus on these negative aspects in hopes that Yerevan will come to understand that relations with Russia are existential for Armenia,” he said. “But if you cannot rely on your ally, the situation can become quite complicated.”
